Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty halted their three-day rally to close with deep cuts on Thursday, in line with bearish global markets, as participants turned cautious ahead of the RBI policy announcement amid geopolitical uncertainties. Intense selling in metal, IT and capital goods stocks also dampened market sentiment, traders said. In a bearish session, the 30-share BSE Sensex further dropped 503.76 points, or 0.60 per cent, to settle at 83,313.93. During the day, it tanked 666.07 points, or 0.79 per cent, to 83,151.62. A total of 2,447 stocks declined while 1,737 advanced and 158 remained unchanged on the BSE. The 50-share NSE Nifty declined 133.20 points, or 0.52 per cent, to end at 25,642.80. "Indian equities saw consolidation, as weakness was followed by a sharp rally in recent sessions, driven by optimism around the US-India trade deal, suggesting profit booking was at play. "Global cues added further pressure, with concerns over a broad-based tech sell-off in international markets and heightened US-Iran tensions leading to risk-off sentiment," Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited, said. Market participants are now turning their attention to the upcoming RBI policy meeting, Nair added. The decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be announced by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday. From the Sensex constituents, Eternal, Bharti Airtel, Bharat Electronics, ITC, Infosys, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank and Asian Paints were among the major laggards. In contrast, Trent, Tata Steel, State Bank of India and Bajaj Finance were the gainers. Among sectoral indices, capital goods dropped 1.07 per cent, metal (1.05 per cent), consumer durables (0.88 per cent), BSE Focused IT (0.78 per cent), IT (0.76 per cent) and telecommunication (0.72 per cent).BSE PSU Bank and oil & gas were the gainers. In Asian markets, South Korea's Kospi ended nearly 4 per cent lower. Japan's Nikkei 225 index and Shanghai's SSE Composite index also ended in the negative territory, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index settled higher. European markets were trading lower. US markets ended mostly lower on Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite index tumbled 1.51 per cent, and the S&P 500 declined by 0.51 per cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 0.53 per cent higher. "Indian equity markets traded in a tight range, signalling a wait-and-watch phase as investors remained cautious in the absence of fresh domestic triggers. While overall sentiment remained stable, the benchmarks struggled to sustain momentum at higher levels, reflecting a lack of follow-through buying despite earlier positives," Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, an online trading and wealth tech firm, said. Market participants remain on the sidelines, awaiting clearer signals from global macro developments, trends in foreign institutional flows, and further clarity on the progress of US-Iran negotiations to determine the market's next decisive move, he added. Foreign institutional investors bought equities worth Rs 29.79 crore on Wednesday, according to exchange data. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also bought stocks worth Rs 249.54 crore in the previous trade. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, dropped 1.32 per cent to USD 68.54 per barrel. On Wednesday, the Sensex ended 78.56 points or 0.09 per cent higher at 83,817.69. The Nifty went up by 48.45 points or 0.19 per cent to settle at 25,776. This story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed, agencies. Mid-day accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability, trustworthiness, reliability and data of the text. Mid-day management/mid-day.com reserves the sole right to alter, delete or remove (without notice) the content in its absolute discretion for any reason whatsoever.
14 February,2026 08:21 PM IST | Mumbai | PTIBenchmark BSE Sensex fell 558 points on Thursday amid heavy selling in IT shares, as concerns over AI-led disruptions and waning hopes of a Fed rate cut after firm US economic data weighed on investor sentiment. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 558.72 points, or 0.66 per cent, to settle at 83,674.92. During the day, it tanked 716.97 points, or 0.85 per cent, to hit an intraday low of 83,516.67. The 50-share NSE Nifty declined 146.65 points, or 0.57 per cent, to end at 25,807.20. Technology stocks led the slide, with Tech Mahindra, Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) tumbling nearly 6 per cent each to emerge as major laggards on the Sensex. HCL Technologies, Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, Reliance Industries, Eternal, HDFC Bank, IndiGo, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Adani Ports also ended in the red.On the other hand, Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank, Trent, Bharat Electronics Ltd, State Bank of India, Asian Paints, Bajaj Finserv, Titan, Larsen & Toubro, Bharti Airtel and Tata Steel were among the gainers. BSE MidCap Select Index fell 0.48 per cent, while SmallCap Select Index slipped 0.28 per cent. Among sectoral indices, Focussed IT slumped the most by 5.40 per cent, followed by IT by 5.29 per cent. Realty also fell by 1.50 per cent, Oil & Gas and Energy fell by 1.18 per cent each, Services by 0.81 per cent, FMCG by 0.43 per cent, Consumer Discretionary by 0.38 per cent and Commodities by 0.32 per cent on the BSE. However, Financial Services, Industrials, Telecommunication, Capital Goods, Consumer Durables, BSE Top 10 Banks were the only gainers. A total of 2,582 stocks declined, while 1,634 advanced and 152 remained unchanged on the BSE. Shares of TCS tumbled 5.41 per cent, dragging its market capitalisation below the Rs 10 lakh crore mark for the first time. At the end of the trading session, the company's market valuation stood at Rs 9,95,661.50 crore, pushing it down to the sixth spot among the country's most valuable listed companies. ICICI Bank, whose shares gained nearly 2 per cent during the day overtook TCS to claim the fifth position in the list of India's top 10 most valuable listed firms."Expect markets to remain range-bound with stock-specific activity as the Q3 earnings season ends. Markets would now look at other triggers including global and domestic inflation, trade developments, and FII flows, while AI-related disruptions could add to volatility," Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said. Khemka added that weakness in IT shares followed fading expectations of a near-term US Fed rate cut after better-than-expected January jobs data in the US and investor's fear that new advanced AI models could automate several traditional IT services potentially impacting future business growth.Meanwhile, foreign institutional investors turned net buyers in February after months of selling, purchasing equities worth an Rs 5,913 crore so far this month (up to February 11), providing some support to overall sentiment, he said. "A nosedive correction in the IT index triggered by mounting concerns over AI-led disruptions, along with low expectations of a US Fed rate cut due to strong US job data and unemployment rates, dampened investor sentiment," Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited, said. He added that in the global markets, AI is reshaping markets by compressing margins in service-intensive sectors and increasing concentration-led volatility. "In India, this technology shift is likely to structurally transform IT services by accelerating delivery timelines and automating volume-driven tasks, thereby challenging the traditional headcount-based outsourcing model.. "A weak sentiment in the IT sector, along with lingering geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, may influence investors to take a cautious approach in the near term," Nair said. In Asian markets, South Korea's Kospi closed over 3 per cent higher. Japan's Nikkei 225 index, Shanghai's SSE Composite index also ended on a positive note, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng benchmark finished in the negative territory. European markets are trading higher in mid-session deals. US equities ended lower on Wednesday.Meanwhile, Foreign institutional investors bought equities worth Rs 943.81 crore on Wednesday, while domestic institutional investors were the net sellers of stocks worth Rs 125.36 crore, according to exchange data. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.27 per cent to USD 69.21 per barrel. On Wednesday, the 30-share BSE Sensex slipped 40.28 points to close at 84,233.64, while the NSE Nifty inched up 18.70 points to settle at 25,953.85. This story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed, agencies. Mid-day accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability, trustworthiness, reliability and data of the text. Mid-day management/mid-day.com reserves the sole right to alter, delete or remove (without notice) the content in its absolute discretion for any reason whatsoever.
12 February,2026 08:39 PM IST | Mumbai | PTIBenchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty extended their gains for the second straight session on Monday, driven by optimism over the India-US trade deal and robust buying in public sector banks, consumer durables, and realty stocks. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 485.35 points, or 0.58 per cent, to close at 84,065.75. During the day, the benchmark surged 734.28 points, or 0.87 per cent, to hit an intraday high of 84,314.68. The 50-share NSE Nifty appreciated by 173.60 points, or 0.68 per cent, to settle at 25,867.30. During the session, the index climbed 228.55 points, or 0.88 per cent, to hit a high of 25,922.25. Among the 30-share constituents, State Bank of India, Titan, UltraTech Cement, Tata Steel, Eternal, Bharat Electronics Ltd, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndiGo, Trent, Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Sun Pharmaceuticals, and Asian Paints were the gainers. On the other hand, PowerGrid, NTPC, ITC, ICICI Bank, Infosys, HDFC Bank, Tech Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki India and Axis Bank were the laggards. "Positive signals from the trade deal, coupled with the return of FIIs, fuelled a risk-on sentiment in the market. Investors are closely watching upcoming results, with PSU banks delivering stronger-than-anticipated performance, helping the PSU bank index outperform," Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Ltd, said. He added that an accumulation strategy was observed in consumer durables and real estate stocks following the recent correction, driven by expectations of a demand revival. "The recovery was broad-based, with sectors such as cement, capital goods, textiles, and consumer discretionary attracting investor interest, supported by union budget proposals and favourable trade deals," Nair said. In Asian markets, Japan's Nikkei 225 index, South Korea's Kospi, Shanghai's SSE Composite index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index closed higher. European markets were quoting higher. US markets ended higher on Friday. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.81 per cent, to USD 67.52 per barrel. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought equities worth Rs 1,950.77 crore on Friday, according to exchange data. On Friday, the 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 266.47 points to settle at 83,580.40, while the NSE Nifty climbed 50.90 points to end at 25,693.70. This story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed, agencies. Mid-day accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability, trustworthiness, reliability and data of the text. Mid-day management/mid-day.com reserves the sole right to alter, delete or remove (without notice) the content in its absolute discretion for any reason whatsoever.
09 February,2026 04:49 PM IST | Mumbai | PTIBenchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined in early trade on Thursday after a three-day rally amid a weak trend in global stock markets. After starting the trade on a bearish note, the 30-share BSE Sensex further dropped 278.72 points to 83,538.97. The 50-share NSE Nifty declined 94.15 points to 25,681.85. From the Sensex firms, InterGlobe Aviation, Bharat Electronics, Axis Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel and Bharti Airtel were among the major laggards. Hindustan Unilever, Trent, NTPC, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services and State Bank of India were among the gainers. In Asian markets, South Korea's Kospi traded lower by over 3 per cent. Japan's Nikkei 225 index, Shanghai's SSE Composite index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index were also trading in negative territory. US markets ended mostly lower on Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite index tumbled 1.51 per cent and S&P 500 declined by 0.51 per cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 0.53 per cent higher. Foreign institutional investors bought equities worth Rs 29.79 crore on Wednesday, according to exchange data. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also bought stocks worth Rs 249.54 crore in the previous trade. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, dropped 2.07 per cent to USD 68.02 per barrel. On Wednesday, the Sensex ended 78.56 points or 0.09 per cent higher at 83,817.69. The Nifty went up by 48.45 points or 0.19 per cent to settle at 25,776. This story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed, agencies. Mid-day accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability, trustworthiness, reliability and data of the text. Mid-day management/mid-day.com reserves the sole right to alter, delete or remove (without notice) the content in its absolute discretion for any reason whatsoever.
05 February,2026 11:34 AM IST | Mumbai | PTIWhere gold is starting 2026 OPNEX notes that gold has been printing fresh all-time highs in January, with spot prices pushing into the $4,900/oz area and U.S. futures settling near similar levels. In parallel, major banks have turned more openly bullish—Goldman Sachs, for example, raised its end-2026 forecast to $5,400/oz (from $4,900), pointing to strong investment demand and ongoing central-bank diversification. OPNEX’s interpretation: the headline is the price, but the story is the buyer mix. The OPNEX “demand stack” that explains the tape Rather than treating gold as a single macro trade, OPNEX breaks demand into three stacked layers that can reinforce—or cancel—each other. 1) The official bid: central banks World Gold Council tracking shows central banks were net buyers (45 tonnes) in November, with year-to-date reported net buying of 297 tonnes through November. OPNEX reads this as a slow-moving but persistent pillar: it typically doesn’t chase intraday headlines, but it can keep the market tight when private demand returns. 2) The fast bid: ETFs and asset allocation OPNEX flags a clear “allocation pulse” in the ETF channel: World Gold Council reports 2025 was the strongest year of global gold ETF inflows on record, with AUM and holdings reaching record highs. Early 2026 flow recaps show SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) pulling in about $3.2B as gold pushed to new highs. This matters because ETF demand can scale quickly—it is one of the few channels that can materially change marginal demand over weeks, not quarters. 3) The leverage layer: futures positioning and volatility Gold’s futures market activity remains heavy, with COMEX data showing large daily volumes and open interest. OPNEX treats this layer as the “amplifier”: it can accelerate trends, but it can also drive sharp air pockets when positioning becomes crowded. The part many traders miss: gold is trading against real yields, not just headlines OPNEX emphasizes that gold’s durability at record highs is notable given where real yields sit. Recent data for the 10-year TIPS real yield has been around the ~1.9% area in January 2026. In older regimes, real yields at these levels were often a meaningful headwind for non-yielding assets. So why is gold still bid? OPNEX points to a blend of: policy and geopolitical hedging demand (investors paying for insurance), and reserve diversification (a structural buyer base that is less price-sensitive than typical commodity users). A practical map for 2026: four triggers OPNEX would watch OPNEX does not anchor on a single target price. It watches triggers that tend to change the type of gold market traders are in. USD swings: a weaker dollar mechanically helps gold; recent reporting explicitly linked the rally to a softer dollar. Real-yield direction: if real yields keep rising, gold often needs stronger “insurance” demand to offset the drag. ETF flow continuity: sustained inflows can keep dips shallow; flow reversals can turn pullbacks into corrections. Central bank cadence: official-sector buying staying elevated reduces the chance that demand disappears all at once. What would weaken the bull case in OPNEX’s framework OPNEX highlights three conditions that would most likely cool the market: Real yields reset higher while risk hedging demand fades (less need to pay for insurance). ETF flows stall or reverse after a record year, removing the fastest-growing demand channel. Geopolitical/policy risk premium compresses, lowering the urgency to hold hedges. Closing take from OPNEX OPNEX views 2026 gold as a market where price is being supported by multiple buyers at once—central banks providing a slow but steady bid, ETFs delivering fast allocation pressure, and futures activity amplifying momentum. That combination can keep the trend resilient, but it also means the cleanest early warning signal is usually not the headline—it’s whether the flow stack stays intact.
03 February,2026 11:25 AM IST | Mumbai | mid-day online correspondentStock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded in early trade on Monday driven by value-buying in blue-chip firms, after facing massive drubbing on the Budget day. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 302 points to 81,024.94 during initial trade. The 50-share NSE Nifty went up by 59.25 points to 24,884.70. From the Sensex firms, Adani Ports, Larsen & Toubro, Asian Paints, Bharat Electronics, Eternal, Reliance Industries, Power Grid and HDFC Bank were among the major gainers. Trent, Titan, ITC and Hindustan Unilever were among the laggards. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday announced measures to boost manufacturing, offered long-term tax incentives for global data centres, and support for agriculture and tourism as she unveiled a Rs 53.5 lakh crore Union Budget for 2026-27, seen as a long-term blueprint for sustaining growth amid rising global risks. Shunning populist measures despite five key states, including West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, heading to polls, the Budget signalled continued fiscal consolidation and infrastructure spending. But a hike in securities transaction tax on equity derivatives rattled equity markets, with key indices plunging as much as 2 per cent in the special Budget-day trading session, before recovering some ground. On Sunday, the BSE benchmark ended at 80,722.94, down 1,546.84 points or 1.88 per cent. The Nifty tanked 495.20 points or 1.96 per cent to settle at 24,825.45. Foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth Rs 588.34 crore on Sunday, according to exchange data. In Asian markets, South Korea's Kospi tumbled over 4 per cent. Japan's Nikkei 225 index, Shanghai's SSE Composite index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index were also trading lower. US markets ended lower on Friday. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, tanked 4.14 per cent to USD 66.45 per barrel. This story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed, agencies. Mid-day accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability, trustworthiness, reliability and data of the text. Mid-day management/mid-day.com reserves the sole right to alter, delete or remove (without notice) the content in its absolute discretion for any reason whatsoever.
02 February,2026 10:55 AM IST | Mumbai | PTIStock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty fluctuated in a narrow range in early trade on Sunday ahead of the Budget 2026-27 presentation. After opening the day on a positive note, the 30-share BSE Sensex later fluctuated and quoted 13 points up at 82,282.82. The 50-share NSE Nifty skidded 7.90 points to 25,312.75 after opening marginally higher. https://www.mid-day.com/news/india-news/live-blog/union-budget-2026-live-updates-finance-minister-nirmala-sitharaman-full-union-budget-speech-highlights-from-parliament-18331577 The Union Budget for 2026-27 will be presented in Parliament later in the day. From the 30 Sensex firms, Sun Pharma climbed nearly 3 per cent after the firm posted a 16 per cent increase in consolidated net profit to Rs 3,369 crore in the third quarter ended December 31, 2025, led by growth across business segments. Bharat Electronics, Power Grid, NTPC and HDFC Bank were among the other major gainers. However, Infosys, Tata Steel, Eternal and Tech Mahindra were among the laggards. "Markets are likely to remain highly volatile, with sharp moves possible in either direction depending on key announcements around fiscal policy, capex push, sector-specific incentives, and the fiscal deficit target (expected around 4.3, 4.4 per cent of GDP for FY27)," Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, an online trading and wealth-tech firm, said. Foreign institutional investors bought equities worth Rs 2,251.37 crore on Friday, according to exchange data. Asian markets are closed on Sunday due to holidays. US markets ended lower on Friday. On Friday, the Sensex declined 296.59 points or 0.36 per cent to settle at 82,269.78. The Nifty dropped 98.25 points or 0.39 per cent to end at 25,320.65. This story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed, agencies. Mid-day accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability, trustworthiness, reliability and data of the text. Mid-day management/mid-day.com reserves the sole right to alter, delete or remove (without notice) the content in its absolute discretion for any reason whatsoever.
01 February,2026 10:33 AM IST | Mumbai | PTIIndian equity markets ended higher for the third straight session on Thursday, overcoming early volatility as investor sentiment improved after the release of the annual Economic Survey. The survey’s positive outlook on economic growth and fiscal discipline helped markets recover from a cautious start and close in the green. The Economic Survey projected India’s GDP growth to be in the range of 6.8 to 7.2 per cent in the 2026–27 financial year. It also said the country is on track to meet its fiscal deficit target of 4.4 per cent in FY26, which boosted confidence among investors. At the close of trade, the Nifty index rose 0.3 per cent, or 76.15 points, to settle at 25,418.90. The Sensex also gained 0.27 per cent, adding 221.6 points to end at 82,566.37. “A sustained breakout above this band could open the path toward 25,600–25,800 in the near term,” an analyst stated. “On the downside, 25,300 is the immediate support, followed by a strong demand zone at 25,160–25,200,” an expert stated. Gains were led by metal and infrastructure-related stocks. Tata Steel, L&T, Axis Bank, Eternal and NTPC were among the top performers on the Sensex, rising by as much as 4.5 per cent. On the other hand, Asian Paints, IndiGo, Maruti Suzuki, TCS and BEL ended lower and were the biggest laggards of the session. The broader market also showed strength, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices ending higher by 0.18 per cent and 0.20 per cent, respectively. Among sectoral indices, the Nifty Metal index was the standout performer, jumping more than 3 per cent. In contrast, the Nifty Healthcare index closed as the top loser of the day, followed by declines in the Nifty FMCG, Nifty Chemicals and Nifty Pharma indices. Analysts said that markets managed to extend their winning streak as optimism around India’s growth outlook and fiscal position outweighed concerns from early-session volatility. Meanwhile, Rupee traded flat to weak near 91.94, down 0.12, as markets remain cautious ahead of the Union Budget. This story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed, agencies. Mid-day accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability, trustworthiness, reliability and data of the text. Mid-day management/mid-day.com reserves the sole right to alter, delete or remove (without notice) the content in its absolute discretion for any reason whatsoever.
30 January,2026 04:48 PM IST | Mumbai | IANSDomestic stock markets opened under heavy selling pressure on Friday amid heightened global market volatility, triggered largely by sharp swings in gold and silver prices. Investor sentiment remained weak as markets reacted to the steep decline and sudden rebound in precious metals, along with broader uncertainty across global asset classes. The Nifty 50 index opened at 25,247.55, slipping 171.35 points or 0.67 per cent, while the BSE Sensex began the session at 81,950.05, down 616.32 points or 0.75 per cent. The early weakness reflected caution among investors as global markets continued to witness sharp fluctuations. Ajay Bagga, Banking and Market Expert, told ANI, "Gold and Silver prices plunge 9-12 per cent, then rebound sharply. Comex gold dropped from near USD 5,625 to around USD 5,100 on Thursday, wiping out USD 3.4 trillion in notional value based on global supply, while silver swung wildly from over USD 121 to USD 106.60. Traders cited profit-taking after gold's 90 per cent yearly surge on geopolitical tensions and central bank buys, and silver's 270 per cent jump from industrial demand. Prices recovered most losses by close, with gold at USD 5,539 and silver at USD 117; the selloff also hit Bitcoin, stocks, and Microsoft shares, which fell 10 per cent on cloud growth worries." He added, "The Thursday Rollercoaster" Thursday was a historic day of "flash crashes" and "V-shaped" recoveries across almost every asset class. The Indian markets are caught between global volatility and the most important domestic week of the year." Broader market indices also remained under pressure. The Nifty 100 was down by 0.3 per cent, while the Nifty Midcap 100 lost 0.67 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 declined by 0.51 per cent. Sectoral indices on the NSE mostly traded in the red. The Nifty Auto index fell by more than 1 per cent, Nifty FMCG slipped 0.20 per cent, Nifty Metal declined 1.71 per cent, Nifty PSU Bank eased 0.25 per cent, Nifty Media dropped 0.7 per cent, and Nifty Realty lost 0.42 per cent. In stock-specific moves, Vedanta shares declined nearly 5 per cent at the open, while Hindustan Zinc also fell 5 per cent, reflecting pressure from high global commodity volatility. On the institutional front, foreign institutional investors net sold equities worth Rs 393 crore on Thursday, while domestic institutional investors provided support with net buying of Rs 2,638 crore. Gaurav Seth, CEO, 5paisa, said, "The recent depreciation of the Indian Rupee is the result of a combination of global and domestic factors rather than any single trigger. We've seen significant FII outflows from Indian equities over the past several months, which naturally puts pressure on the currency. This has been compounded by geopolitical developments, particularly the sharp increase in US tariffs on Indian exports and the absence of a near-term trade agreement between India and the US". Asian markets also traded lower, adding to weak sentiment. Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 0.3 per cent, Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.16 per cent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dropped 1.73 per cent, and Taiwan's Weighted Index declined 1.15 per cent. This story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed, agencies. Mid-day accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability, trustworthiness, reliability and data of the text. Mid-day management/mid-day.com reserves the sole right to alter, delete or remove (without notice) the content in its absolute discretion for any reason whatsoever.
30 January,2026 10:38 AM IST | Mumbai | ANIPry Capital’s starting point: copper is trading two stories at once Pry Capital describes the current copper tape as a collision between structural-demand optimism and short-cycle dislocations. On the optimism side, Reuters reported copper pushing above $13,000/ton in early January, with the rally tied to expectations of strong demand growth from AI data centers and electric vehicles, plus a broader “critical minerals / supply chain security” theme. On the dislocation side, Pry Capital points to how tariff risk and arbitrage have re-routed physical metal, creating inventory buildups that can confuse the signal coming from price. Price action matters—but the “why” matters more Pry Capital treats the early-January spike as a regime clue, not a standalone headline. Goldman Sachs notes LME copper rallied to a record $13,387/ton on Jan 6 after a strong run-up from late 2025, and expects support near $13,000 in Q1 before forecasting a decline later in the year. That arc—record high, then a “supported but vulnerable” profile—is consistent with a market where positioning and logistics can amplify moves beyond what near-term fundamentals justify. S&P Global adds an important nuance: analysts there argue the current price level can be difficult to defend if speculative positioning is stretched, noting LME net length near the upper end of historical ranges and warning momentum can flip quickly. Pry Capital’s interpretation is that copper is in a phase where tightness can be real and overshoot can still occur—both can be true in the same quarter. The physical reality check: where are the inventories? Pry Capital leans heavily on inventories because they reveal whether the market is tight everywhere, or tight only in certain deliverable locations. Reuters reported that copper pulled into COMEX warehouses rose sharply: COMEX stocks were 499,841 short tons (453,450 metric tons) as of Jan 2, up about 400% since April, as traders moved metal ahead of potential levies; one analyst estimated additional large volumes stored off-exchange in the U.S. This is the core “signal problem” Pry Capital flags: ● When exchange inventories surge in one region due to policy risk, price can scream scarcity even as the global system temporarily behaves like a surplus. ● In Reuters’ Jan 5 reporting, Macquarie’s Alice Fox argued the fundamentals did not justify current prices and suggested the inventory shift implied a sizable surplus the prior year. S&P Global’s reporting echoes this normalization risk, noting the arbitrage between COMEX and LME no longer supports additional pulls, and that the market has been focused on U.S. tariff timing and its inventory side-effects. Flow mechanics: tariff risk is reshaping trade lanes Pry Capital’s second pillar is flow data—because copper is global, but deliverability isn’t. Reuters reported that China, still the world’s largest copper importer, has faced difficulty competing with the U.S. premium for CME-deliverable brands; it also reported China’s imports of Chilean copper fell 43% year-on-year and Peruvian metal fell 50% over January–November 2025, with rising dependence on shipments from the DRC (37%) and Russia (11%) over that period. For Pry Capital, these figures support a specific conclusion: this market is not just “tight vs. loose”—it’s geographically segmented. Policy-driven premiums can drain metal from one hub and pile it into another, creating: ● localized tightness (premiums spike; nearby spreads tighten), ● while headline inventory builds elsewhere look “bearish.” That segmentation is why Pry Capital avoids single-number narratives (“copper is tight / copper is surplus”) and instead asks: tight where, deliverable into what, and at what cost? Supply: disruptions are reinforcing the scarcity narrative On the supply side, Pry Capital notes the market is being fed by repeated reminders that mine output isn’t a smooth line. Reuters’ Jan 5 report cited disruptions including the incident at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia and a strike at Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde mine in Chile as reinforcing shortage concerns. Reuters also reported Citi estimates that implied a 308,000-ton deficit (via refined copper production/market balance estimates) in that context. Separately, Reuters’ Jan 22 Freeport coverage highlights how price is offsetting operational hits: the miner benefited from a 28% rise in average copper price to $5.33/lb, even as the company cut its 2026 production outlook and detailed a phased restart trajectory at Grasberg. Pry Capital reads that as a reminder that “deficit talk” can persist even when some supply issues resolve—because the system is running with less slack. Demand: the AI story is real, but China price sensitivity is also real Pry Capital treats demand as a two-speed story. Speed 1: structurally supportive themes. Reuters explicitly ties the rally narrative to AI data centers and EVs—copper-intensive buildouts that are difficult to replace with other materials in the near term. Speed 2: cyclical and price-sensitive behavior—especially in China. S&P Global cites analysts arguing that downstream demand growth in China is not dramatic in 2026 and that high prices are already hurting end-user demand, pointing to a sharp decline in China’s import premium; it also cites a view that China’s core copper-using sectors may grow only modestly (near flat) this year. Pry Capital’s synthesis: copper can be structurally bullish over the decade and still be tactically unstable quarter-to-quarter if prices outrun near-term affordability, premiums collapse, or inventories reappear. Pry Capital’s framework: three dashboards to avoid one bad forecast Rather than projecting a single average price, Pry Capital organizes the copper market into three dashboards: 1) The “Price vs. Placement” dashboard ● Are record prices being driven by real global scarcity, or by where metal is parked due to tariff and arbitrage incentives? ● Watch whether COMEX inventory builds persist once the policy/tariff timeline becomes clearer. 2) The “Deficit math” dashboard ● Reuters notes deficit estimates (e.g., Citi’s) that support tightness. ● S&P Global notes other analyst views that deficits are not large enough to justify extreme prices and that positioning can overextend. The practical point: when credible analysts disagree, pricing is more likely to be position- and flow-driven than “settled by fundamentals” in the near term. 3) The “China premium” dashboard ● If China’s import premium stays weak while U.S. inventories remain heavy, Pry Capital expects the market to become more vulnerable to drawdowns even if the long-term narrative stays positive. What would change Pry Capital’s view quickly Pry Capital highlights three “fast switch” catalysts: 1. Policy clarity on U.S. tariff timing and scope (because it changes the incentive to ship/warehouse copper). 2. A sustained drawdown in U.S. inventories (which would suggest the build was truly transitory and demand is absorbing supply). 3. Evidence that China’s physical demand is re-accelerating despite price (premiums, imports, and downstream orders—where price elasticity shows up first). Bottom line Pry Capital’s copper message is that the market is currently pricing a structural scarcity future while simultaneously living through a short-term logistics and policy distortion. Record prices can be “right” about the long-term race for supply and still be “fragile” in the near term if inventories and positioning are doing more work than end-user demand.
29 January,2026 06:48 PM IST | New Delhi | mid-day online correspondentThe oil market’s 2026 problem: “oversupply on paper” vs “shock premium in practice” HupoFin’s 2026 oil framework starts with a tension that keeps reappearing: baseline forecasts point to rising inventories and softer average prices, yet the front of the curve can still jump on outages, weather, and geopolitics. ● Where prices are now: On January 26, 2026, Brent settled around $65.81/bbl and WTI around $61.01/bbl, with markets weighing storm-related output losses and Iran-related risk headlines against a broader “ample supply” narrative. ● What the baseline says: The U.S. EIA’s January Short-Term Energy Outlook expects Brent to average about $56/bbl in 2026 (down from 2025) as global production exceeds demand and inventories build. ● What demand trackers say: The IEA’s January 2026 Oil Market Report forecasts global oil demand growth averaging ~930 kb/d in 2026 (vs ~850 kb/d in 2025), with non-OECD driving the gains. HupoFin’s conclusion: 2026 is likely to be a “range with episodes” year—average levels may drift lower, but tradable volatility clusters around policy meetings, outages, and inventory inflection points. A higher-signal way to read 2026: the Oil Decision Tree Rather than making a single-point price call, HupoFin organizes the year into three branches that can be monitored with public data. Branch 1: OPEC+ chooses “floor defense” or “share defense” OPEC+ policy remains the market’s quickest lever. Reuters reported on January 26, 2026 that OPEC+ is likely to maintain its pause on production increases through March 2026, with eight key members expected to finalize at a February 1 meeting. The immediate catalyst in that coverage was a sharp drop in Kazakhstan output (Tengiz disruption), while the broader rationale referenced weak-demand forecasts that led to pausing planned hikes. How HupoFin interprets this: ● A continued pause tends to cap downside when inventories are building slowly. ● A restart of increases tends to pull prices toward the marginal cost faster—especially if demand surprises are modest. Branch 2: Non-OPEC supply behaves like a “price-sensitive governor” U.S. shale is not the swing supplier it used to be, but it still matters—particularly in downside scenarios. Reuters cited Rystad Energy’s view that U.S. shale output could fall by up to ~400 kb/d in 2026 if prices slid toward $40/bbl, while production might stay roughly flat near $60/bbl conditions. HupoFin takeaway: This creates a “soft floor” dynamic—deep price dips can trigger a supply response, but the response is not instantaneous and won’t prevent short-lived drawdowns. Branch 3: The shock channel sets the prompt-month tone Even if the annual balance is loose, the prompt market can spike on disruptions: ● Weather disruption: Reuters noted winter storm impacts that cut roughly ~250 kb/d of U.S. output (Texas/Oklahoma), adding a short-lived supply risk layer. ● Geopolitics: Reuters also described heightened U.S.–Iran tensions contributing to a risk premium in late January. ● Kazakhstan/Tengiz: Kazakhstan’s disruptions and subsequent normalization have repeatedly moved prices in January. HupoFin’s rule: shocks matter most when they change inventories, not just headlines. That’s why weekly inventory data is the “truth serum.” Inventories: the one scoreboard that can settle the debate If 2026 becomes a “glut narrative” year, it will show up in stocks and product demand. ● EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) page provides release cadence and the next release timing (e.g., Jan 28, 2026 listed as the next release after the Jan 22 report). ● Reuters reported that EIA data showed a 3.6 million barrel U.S. crude inventory build for the week ending Jan 16, weighing on prices around that time. Why this is central to 2026: ● If inventories build steadily even with OPEC+ caution, the market is telling you supply is winning. ● If inventories stop building despite weaker macro narratives, the market is tighter than it looks—and the forward curve usually firms. Why credible forecasts can disagree (and why that’s useful) HupoFin doesn’t treat forecast dispersion as “noise.” It’s information about what’s uncertain. ● EIA baseline: Brent $56/bbl average in 2026; inventories rise as production outpaces demand. ● IEA demand lens: demand growth ~930 kb/d in 2026, with non-OECD driving growth and gasoline gains slowing. ● Consensus/polling lens: a Reuters poll earlier in January projected Brent averaging ~$61.27/bbl in 2026 and WTI ~$58.15/bbl, reflecting how traders price policy reactions and disruptions, not just balances. HupoFin interpretation: When price is above the “inventory-build baseline,” the market is paying for optionality—OPEC+ behavior, disruption risk, and demand surprises. 2026 scenarios (built for monitoring, not predicting) Scenario A: “Soft averages, loud volatility” (base case) ● EIA-style inventory-build trend persists ● OPEC+ manages optics with pauses/gradualism ● shocks create spikes that fade as supply reasserts Scenario B: “Policy floor + demand resilience” ● demand growth holds near IEA expectations ● OPEC+ stays restrictive longer than the market expects ● inventory builds slow; the curve tightens Scenario C: “Downside scare forces supply response” ● growth disappoints; prices sag ● shale growth slows or declines at lower price levels ● OPEC+ leans harder into stability rhetoric What HupoFin would watch next (high-signal checklist) 1. Feb 1 OPEC+ decision path: is the pause extended, and how explicit is the guidance? 2. Weekly inventory direction (not one print): WPSR schedule + trend confirmation. 3. Disruption persistence: Kazakhstan/Tengiz and weather disruptions—do they change exports and stocks? 4. Geopolitical premium: does risk premium survive when supply is uninterrupted? Bottom line HupoFin’s oil view for 2026 is structurally cautious but volatility-respecting: official forecasts point to a year where supply can outrun demand and inventories build, yet real-world episodes—OPEC+ strategy, Kazakhstan outages, storms, and Iran-related risk—can keep prompt pricing reactive. In that regime, the best “edge” is not a heroic forecast—it’s disciplined monitoring of OPEC+ decisions and weekly inventory trendlines. Market commentary only; not investment advice.
29 January,2026 06:39 PM IST | New Delhi | ANIADVERTISEMENT
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