Gold prices fall 1.86 per cent during the week amid high US inflation data

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Gold prices dipped nearly 1.86 per cent as markets digested higher‑than‑expected inflation data and a hawkish debut speech by US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium.

On Friday, MCX gold futures expiring in October dropped 1.63 per cent while MCX silver futures for September shed 1.66 per cent. Gold futures stood at Rs 1,56,400, while silver futures stood at Rs 2,36,651 per kg.

The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold was at Rs 1,59,578 on Friday, down from Rs 1,62,603 seen on Monday at market opening, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).

After a strong surge earlier this week momentum reversed after July US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation reading came in at 3.7 per cent year‑on‑year, along with US labour and trade data pointing to a stronger‑than‑expected economy.

Renewed concerns about currency debasement and US Treasury support for long‑dated bonds had caused the bullion rally to multi‑month highs earlier in the week.

However, stronger-than-expected economic data led to market pricing in a higher probability of the Fed remaining restrictive for longer.

A hawkish speech from Kevin Warsh reset rate expectations, while oil eased from recent highs on fresh signs of diplomatic progress around the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold tumbled roughly USD 70 within minutes of Warsh's speech before recovering some ground, while silver also gave back gains from its earlier highs, analysts said.

Odds of a September rate hike jumped from roughly 1-in-3 to more than 2-in-5 on the CME FedWatch tool, and year-end rate expectations rose to their highest level in three weeks.

Silver mirrored the swings, climbing to a 10-week high before slipping back multiple times over the week, while copper touched fresh all-time highs before easing back.

Immediate resistance is placed at USD 4,600-USD 4,630 zone, for Comex Gold, while support lies at USD 4,500-USD 4,470 zone, analysts said.

For MCX Gold, immediate resistance is placed at Rs 1,59,200-1,60,000 zone, while the support lies at Rs 1,56,200-Rs 1,55,500, they added.

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