India's e-commerce market to triple to USD 345 billion by 2030 led by quick commerce, AI integration

Representational Image. File pic.

India's e-commerce sector is projected to grow nearly three times to USD 345 billion by 2030 from USD 125 billion in 2024, propelled by the rapid expansion of quick commerce and artificial intelligence (AI) integration, according to a report released on Wednesday.

According to the report titled 'Smart Growth in a Fast Market' by research consultancy Infisum, the market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.4 per cent through 2030.

The report highlights that the country's dark store network is set to nearly triple from 2,525 in 2025 to approximately 7,500 by 2030 to meet the surging demand for rapid deliveries.

"India's e-commerce sector is entering a transformative phase of growth and innovation, with the market projected to nearly triple from USD 125 billion in 2024 to USD 345 billion by 2030.

"Quick commerce is the fastest-growing segment within India's e-commerce ecosystem. Valued at an estimated USD 65-70 billion by 2030, the segment is expected to contribute 45-50 per cent of incremental e-retail growth over the next five years," the report stated.

In the competitive quick commerce segment, Blinkit leads with a 44 per cent market share, having processed 900 million orders in FY26. It is followed by Zepto and Swiggy Instamart with market shares of 25 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively.

The report identifies Gen Z as a primary driver of growth, already accounting for nearly one-third of online shoppers. It is expected to become the country's largest digital spending cohort by 2030.

Furthermore, the expansion is moving beyond metropolitan areas, with 66 per cent of new direct-to-consumer (D2C) orders now originating from Tier II and Tier III cities.

By the end of the decade, e-commerce is expected to account for 10-12 per cent of India's total retail spending and contribute 2.5 per cent to the national GDP, serving an estimated 420-440 million online shoppers.

On the technological front, AI and machine learning are projected to improve retail productivity by 35-37 per cent by 2030. Innovations such as conversational commerce, AI-powered shopping assistants, and virtual try-ons are fundamentally changing consumer discovery and purchase patterns.

This story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed, agencies. Mid-day accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability, trustworthiness, reliability and data of the text. Mid-day management/mid-day.com reserves the sole right to alter, delete or remove (without notice) the content in its absolute discretion for any reason whatsoever.