Mumbai set for warmer October start as temperatures may touch 35 degrees Celsius this weekend

A hazy afternoon at Marine Drive on Thursday. Pic/Ashish Raje

Mumbai is set for a warmer start to October, with temperatures expected to rise by 2-3°C over the weekend and touch 35°C or above as the southwest monsoon begins to withdraw. The city had a relatively dry September, with rainfall activity easing towards the end of the month.

In the past 5 years, the monsoons in the city have ended only after October 10. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects isolated rain in ghat region before the monsoon withdraws from Mumbai.

"We can see that the rainfall activity has almost ceased, but isolated rains can be expected between Thursday and Friday in parts of the ghat region. After 48 hours, the monsoons would come to an end for parts of Maharashtra," said Bikram Singh, regional head of IMD's Regional Meteorological Centre, Mumbai.

A warmer October ahead

Singh said temperatures are typically higher in October, but this year could see above-normal temperatures and a possibility of heatwaves along coastal Maharashtra.

"While temperatures typically go higher in October, we expect them to be slightly above normal with the possibility of heatwaves around coastal Maharashtra, not so much in the interior," he said.

Rajesh Kapadia, an independent weatherman and founder of Vagaries of Weather, said with withdrawing monsoon Mumbai could see temperatures of 35°C to 37°C, with the real feel potentially reaching 39°C.

"Mumbai may also experience delayed winters, with a not very cold November in store," he said.

Why was rain so uneven?

Kapadia said Mumbai received rain in spells rather than evenly through the season. "Mumbai received monsoon in spurts this year, with most of it concentrated in the first 10 days of July and the last 10 days of August. Though we had an okay quantum of rain, a high-pressure area or an anti-cyclone was created over the western parts of India. This is why systems that we got from the Bay of Bengal started moving upwards, and we received less rain in the second half of the season."

Hazy skies foggy days?

The seasonal transition could also change the city's skies. Rushikesh Agre, an independent weatherman who runs the Mumbai Rains page, said the absence of westerlies and the prevailing high temperatures could lead to hazier conditions.

"We are certainly in the middle of a transition, which we typically see after a week in October. This year, due to the El Nino and the absence of Westerlies, we don't have opposing forces for the high temperatures. This could also mean 2 to 3 days of foggy mornings for the central parts of Mumbai."

Agre said temperatures could see a slight dip after the warm weekend, but only temporarily. "While the city is likely to see a slight drop in the temperatures after the warm weekend, it would only be a small respite."

What to expect next

Hazy skies
The seasonal transition could also change the city's skies.

Weekend
Temperatures expected to rise.

Early October
Monsoon withdrawal from Mumbai expected as rainfall activity declines.

Later October
Warmer conditions are likely, according to weather experts.