Pune to have a centre for epidemic study

Team of epidemiologists to use mathematical models, climatological data to predict epidemics likely to hit city

In 1896, Pune's tryst with deadly epidemic began in the form of bubonic plague (see box). In 2010, it struggles with H1N1. Tired of being constantly caught unawares by life-threatening epidemics, state officials have now decided to set up a centre for forecasting epidemics, headquartered in Pune.

Speaking exclusively to MiD DAY, Dr D S Dakhure, director general of health services, Maharashtra, said the idea was to create an institution along the lines of the National Institute of Communicable Diseases. "On several occasions in the past, we made plans after a disease hit us. We want an institution to analyse world trends, study the viruses doing the rounds to be able to predict what can hit our states. This will help us prepare infrastructure and start developing vaccines before we are hit," reasoned Dakhure.

Dr R R Pardeshi, health officer, PMC, said the idea was mooted at the heels of the latest H1N1 pandemic.

"Whenever any epidemic hits India, our city suffers the maximum. Due to its favourable climate for viruses to thrive, we are the worst hit, and we lose the most lives. This is why such a system is necessary," he said, adding that the new centre would be housed in the Infectious Disease hospital being built in Aundh.

The PMC's health department has already earmarked Rs 1 crore as funds during 2010-11 for the initial phase of the project.

The state government and PMC, doctors from Sassoon hospital's preventive social medicine department and some private hospitals are advisors in the project according to sources.

How will it work?
A team of experts in communicable diseases, epidemiologists etc would be put in place for this purpose. "The experts would monitor data from the World Health Organisation, alerts, and institutes like Centre for Disease Control in Atlanta. After studying mathematical models and climatological data, possible routes of transmission would be analysed. If there is a possibility of the contagion spreading to India, an alert would be sent to officials who would then take further action," said Pardeshi.