An early warning for Indian cities

Screengrab from a video of an area affected by Cyclone Montha. Pic/X/@AndhraPradeshCM

As the remnants of Cyclone Montha leave behind flooding and crop losses across Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, and another weather system brews over the Arabian Sea, bringing rain to Maharashtra and Goa, India is once again reminded of a crucial truth: forecasts and warnings, though improving, cannot by themselves keep our cities safe. They may help us anticipate a storm, but resilience depends equally on how well cities are planned, built, and managed.

This year's above-normal monsoon, which ended at 108 per cent of the Long Period Average, underscores this imbalance. Despite timely forecasts, severe flooding occurred across Delhi-NCR, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Maharashtra, and Kolkata between July and October.

Between 2012 and 2022, more than half of India's tehsils (sub-districts) recorded an increase in monsoon rainfall between June and September, with nearly a quarter reporting a rise of more than 30 per cent compared to the preceding 30 years. In response, India has made significant progress in improving its Early Warning Systems (EWS). Analysis by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) shows that flood EWS now reach nearly one in three Indians, while cyclone EWS reach all exposed citizens - a remarkable improvement from a decade ago. Initiatives like ‘Mission Mausam' aim to strengthen weather forecasting through high-resolution models, better observation networks, and tailored advisories for key sectors.

Yet, these advances in forecasting have not translated into reduced flood risk. Early warning systems have undoubtedly saved lives by giving people precious hours to prepare and evacuate, but they cannot make up for inadequate urban planning and outdated infrastructure. EWS have evolved from basic rainfall alerts to integrated platforms combining meteorological, hydrological, and satellite data, delivered via SMS, mobile applications, and community loudspeaker networks. But today's urban floods are as much a planning failure as a climatic one.

Many city master plans still treat drainage as an afterthought, prioritising roads and real estate over water-sensitive design. Flood-risk maps rarely inform planning approvals, leading to construction on wetlands, encroachment on floodplains, and blocked storm drains. As rainfall intensity rises, cities' absorptive and drainage capacities are shrinking, making every monsoon a test of their planning foresight and resilience.

Resilience must be built into statutory master plansc - not added as a post-disaster measure. Strengthening the flood resilience of cities will require coordinated action across early warning systems, urban planning, blue-green infrastructure, and finance.

First, early warning systems must evolve from hazard detection to coordinated response. Cities should invest in last-mile connectivity, integrating hyperlocal forecasts with municipal command centres, ward-level dissemination networks, and neighbourhood response teams. Warnings should automatically trigger actions such as drain clearance, traffic rerouting, and evacuation support. Cities like Gorakhpur and Vijayawada are already moving towards anticipatory and coordinated flood management. For instance, Gorakhpur has automated its drainage pump network, enabling remote monitoring and pre-emptive action based on rainfall forecasts.

Second, periodic flood-risk assessments and water-sensitive urban design must become mandatory parts of every master plan. While some master plans are revised every 10 to 20 years, they should ideally be reviewed every five to ensure alignment with changing rainfall patterns and policy frameworks. Plans should incorporate flood-risk maps and hydrological data, make them publicly accessible, and ensure they are legally binding for planning approvals. ‘Flood resilience zoning' can ensure that high-risk areas are reserved for adaptive uses such as parks, wetlands, and retention ponds rather than residential or commercial buildings. Additionally, climate risk audits should be mandatory for major projects, such as Metro lines, industrial parks, housing townships, and highways, especially in Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities, to ensure drainage and resilience compliance before construction begins. Cities like Kochi, Guwahati, Chennai, and Surat are already integrating flood-risk zoning, drainage mapping, and resilience audits into planning decisions, showing how statutory frameworks can shift from reactive to preventive flood management.

Third, traditional stormwater drains are no longer adequate to handle today's extreme rainfall. Cities must combine grey infrastructure with Nature-based Solutions (NbS) to create layered, adaptive drainage systems. A holistic approach would integrate wetlands for water storage, bioswales to filter and absorb runoff from paved surfaces, and permeable pavements and green roofs to increase infiltration. Under the Hyderabad Disaster Response and Asset Protection Agency, six lakes are being restored, expanding from 105 acres to 180 acres by reclaiming encroached land, showing how NbS can restore capacity and reduce flood risk.

Finally, resilient planning requires resilient financing. Most municipal budgets remain constrained, leaving little room for preventive investment. Cities like Chennai have begun exploring municipal bonds to fund urban infrastructure. The Greater Chennai Corporation has restored 70 ponds and established 88 sponge parks under various schemes, with a budget of R159.08 crore. Expanding blended finance, impact bonds, and public-private partnerships can unlock additional capital for drainage upgrades and NbS projects. The recent allocation of Rs 2500 crore under the 15th Finance Commission to implement NbS projects across seven of India's largest cities provides further momentum.

To truly safeguard India's cities, early warning systems must be embedded within a broader framework of climate-informed planning, blue-green infrastructure, and sustainable finance. Policymakers must view early warning systems not as an endpoint, but as an entry point to systemic resilience. India's urban future will not be secured by better forecasts alone, but by better foresight.

Shreya Wadhawan is a Programme Associate, and Dr Vishwas Chitale is a Fellow at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). Views are personal.

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