Clock ticking for BJP’s allies?

(From left) Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and his deputies Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar. FILE PIC/SATEJ SHINDE

Ajit Pawar's departure is not just another political headline. It is like the Nationalist Congress Party's (NCP) clock, its symbol, has lost its main hand. The party's rhythm slows down, and the whole alliance is likely to move differently. This is the kind of moment that will change Maharashtra's political map. And that is what may now happen inside the "triple-engine sarkar" Mahayuti, made up of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar's NCP.

The NCP was already finding it hard to stay strong in today's broken and changing politics. Pawar's absence makes the situation even worse. The party depended heavily on his leadership, his control over government work, and his ability to negotiate power. Without him, the NCP risks losing not only a leader, but also its direction.

The signs of change are already clear. The BJP's recent wins in the Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad municipal corporations, areas long seen as strongholds of the Pawar family and the NCP, show how fast things are shifting. These were not just small local elections. They were important political signals from Pawar's home ground. The BJP's success there suggests that the NCP's base is weakening, and even old political bastions are no longer safe.

Ajit Pawar was not just deputy chief minister in name. He was the NCP's strongest administrator and its most powerful negotiator. He made sure the party remained important inside the government. His presence gave the NCP more influence than its numbers suggested. In alliances, power is not only about seats; it is about who can bargain and who can hold ground. Pawar gave the NCP that strength. Without him, the party may start looking like a small partner with little weight.

Now the big question for the NCP is simple: how does it stay important in an alliance where bigger parties are always ready to take over any empty space?

With weak leadership, confusion among workers, and no clear centre, the party could slowly lose its place. In Maharashtra, parties do not always disappear slowly, they often break, split, or get pushed aside once their main support collapses.

But the impact will not stop with the NCP alone. Pawar's presence also helped keep balance inside the Mahayuti. He ensured that the alliance was not controlled by only one power centre. He acted like a counterweight, stopping the BJP from becoming the only dominant force. With him gone, the balance shifts strongly in one direction, and the BJP's control becomes harder to challenge.

This puts Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena under more pressure. Shinde's faction has been fighting not just elections, but also a bigger fight for legitimacy after the Sena split. His politics has depended on careful alliance management, where each partner had some bargaining power. Pawar's presence gave Shinde shared space and support inside the coalition.

Without that, Shinde may find himself pushed into a smaller corner. His ability to negotiate within the alliance could reduce as the BJP grows stronger. In such coalitions, the smaller partner often has to struggle just to protect its space.

And this is where the biggest winner becomes clear - the BJP.

The BJP has always been the most organised and ambitious force within the Mahayuti. Unlike its partners, it does not wait for opportunities; it creates them. It expands through elections, strong organisation, and control over political narrative. Even when Pawar was still part of the alliance, both the NCP and Shinde's Sena often had to compete with the BJP, not just cooperate with it.

This tension has been seen on the ground many times. In civic and municipal elections, the BJP has expanded even at the cost of its own allies. In Maharashtra, alliances are often based on need, not friendship.

And the BJP's long-term goal has remained clear, to become the single strongest force, not just one among equals.

The BJP's steady rise in western Maharashtra, once firmly NCP territory, reflects this larger plan.

Ajit Pawar's exit, then, is more than the loss of one leader. It shows how quickly Maharashtra's political equations can change. One departure can weaken one party, unsettle an ally, and strengthen another, all at the same time. Coalitions work only when power is shared. With Pawar gone, that balance is disturbed, and the BJP is best placed to tighten its grip.

The coming years will show whether the NCP can rebuild without its strongest leader, whether Shinde can protect his political space, and how far the BJP will go in expanding its dominance across Maharashtra.

Because in Maharashtra's politics, the real question is not only who leaves. The real question is, who will step in next and take over the space left behind?

Sanjeev Shivadekar is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @SanjeevShivadek
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