How internal battles affect alliances

Shiv Sena (UBT) nominee Ambadas Danve (third from right) files his nominations as Maha Vikas Aghadi’s candidate for the MLC polls. Pic/X/@NarvekarMilind_

What should have been a routine nomination process for nine MLC seats has exposed something far more telling - a visible crack in the Opposition. In politics, what is not said often matters more than what is. This time, the silence from the Opposition benches was not just noticeable; it was defining.

The Opposition did not just miss an opportunity. It seemed to step aside from the contest altogether. And that, more than any speech or statement, reveals its current state of disarray.

It is worth remembering how the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) was formed in 2019. It brought together parties with sharply different ideologies, united largely by a single goal - to keep the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) out of power. Even then, it was widely described as an "unnatural alliance." Today, that description no longer sounds like political criticism; it reads like an accurate assessment.

Instead of consolidating itself against its principal rival, the alliance now appears trapped in its own contradictions. Coalitions are tested not when they are formed but when they are required to act cohesively. On that count, the MVA seems to be faltering. Its energies appear increasingly consumed by internal equations rather than external challenges.

The contrast with the ruling Mahayuti alliance could not have been sharper. Leaders from the BJP, including Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Deputy Chief Ministers Eknath Shinde and Sunetra Pawar, made their presence felt during the nomination process. They may not have shared a stage, but they projected a clear message, coordination, discipline, and control. It was a display carefully calibrated to signal authority.

Across the aisle, the absence was equally telling. The MVA's key faces, Uddhav Thackeray, Aaditya Thackeray, Supriya Sule, and Jayant Patil, were nowhere to be seen. Even the Congress leadership failed to register a visible presence. This wasn't a scheduling gap; it appeared to be a political withdrawal.

For the average citizen, one side looked organised, confident, and in command, while the other appeared disconnected, almost resigned. In a political climate where perception often travels faster than policy, this imbalance matters. And right now, perception is clearly tilting in favour of the ruling alliance.

The MVA has been showing signs of strain for some time, with leadership pulls, competing ambitions, and visible mistrust.

Politics is not patient. It rewards those who show up and penalises those who hesitate. When senior leaders stay away from key moments, the message is unambiguous. For party workers on the ground, this is not just disappointing, it is demoralising. Leadership, after all, is as much about presence as it is about strategy.

The Mahayuti, on the other hand, has done what confident alliances do: it has seized the moment. Such moments do more than secure immediate advantage; they build narrative, momentum, and credibility. In politics, these are assets that compound over time.

There is also a broader lesson here. Alliances built primarily to keep a strong opponent out of power rarely sustain themselves unless they evolve beyond that singular objective. India's national coalitions, from the UPA to the NDA, have both experienced phases of cohesion and strain, depending on how well their partners aligned on a larger vision. The MVA now appears to be confronting that same test. Managing internal contradictions is no longer optional; it is essential.

The warning signs are already visible. The Congress has begun staking early claims over MLC and even Rajya Sabha seats likely to arise in 2028. Leaders from Shiv Sena (UBT) have dismissed these moves as premature. But the signal is clear; the contest within has begun well before the contest outside.

Within party ranks, too, the impact is immediate. Workers take cues from leadership behaviour. When they sense hesitation or disunity at the top, it creates uncertainty below. Over time, this erodes organisational strength and weakens mobilisation capacity, often well before an election is fought.

For the Opposition, this is not just a moment of setback; it is a moment of reckoning. Alliances cannot survive on arithmetic alone. They require communication, clarity, and a shared political direction. Without these, even routine political exercises begin to expose deeper fractures.

And that may be the clearest takeaway. An alliance formed to take on a rival now appears preoccupied with itself. When internal battles begin to overshadow external ones this early, the outcome is rarely in doubt. In politics, defeat does not always arrive dramatically; more often, it begins quietly from within, through absence, hesitation, and silence.

Sanjeev Shivadekar is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @SanjeevShivadek

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