mid-day Opinion: Thackerays are losing grip in state

(From left) Maharashtra Navnirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray and his cousin, Shiv Sena (UBT) President Uddhav Thackeray. FILE PIC/RANE ASHISH

Political defections are nothing new in Indian politics. Leaders switch parties, alliances change, and loyalties are tested before every election. Most of the time, these moves are seen as political calculations. But sometimes a defection points to a bigger problem.

The departure of six MPs from Shiv Sena (UBT) is one such case.

The real issue is not the number of MPs who have left. The bigger question is why leaders who once stood firmly with Uddhav Thackeray no longer see their future with him. More importantly, does this indicate a larger decline in the political strength of the Thackeray brand?

For decades, the Thackeray name was one of the most powerful names in Maharashtra politics. Bal Thackeray built the Shiv Sena into a movement that inspired loyalty among lakhs of workers and supporters. He never became chief minister, yet his influence extended far beyond government offices. His speeches shaped political debates, and his views mattered across the state.

There was a time when being associated with the Thackerays was itself a political advantage. Leaders joined the Shiv Sena because they believed it had a strong future. Workers spent years building the organisation because they felt they were part of a larger cause.

Today, things look very different. The split led by Eknath Shinde in 2022 was not just another rebellion. It changed Maharashtra politics completely. Shiv Sena lost its name, symbol and many senior leaders. While Uddhav Thackeray retained the support and sympathy of many loyal Shiv Sainiks, rebuilding the party after such a setback was never going to be easy. The latest exits show that the impact of that split is still being felt.

Political parties can survive election defeats. They can survive setbacks and even major splits. What is harder to survive is the loss of confidence within the party. When leaders start believing that their future lies elsewhere, defections become a sign of a deeper problem.

History has seen this before.

There was a time when the Congress under Indira Gandhi looked unbeatable. Very few leaders dared to challenge her decisions. Yet even that dominance weakened over time because of internal divisions and changing political realities. The lesson is simple: no political brand stays strong forever just because it was powerful in the past.

The same rule applies to regional parties.

A famous surname can attract attention, but voters and party workers eventually want more. They look for leadership, organisation and the ability to win elections. In politics, people are drawn towards those whom they believe can shape the future, not just those who shaped the past.

This is the challenge before Uddhav Thackeray today.

His supporters believe he was unfairly treated when the Shiv Sena split. Many voters may agree. But sympathy alone does not build a political comeback. For a party to grow, its leaders, workers and supporters must believe that it can return to power.

The problem is not limited to Shiv Sena (UBT). Raj Thackeray's MNS has also struggled to turn public attention into electoral success. As a result, both parties linked to the Thackeray family have slowly moved away from the centre of Maharashtra politics while new power centres have emerged.

The BJP has expanded rapidly. Eknath Shinde has become an important leader in the ruling alliance. Even late Ajit Pawar's NCP continues to remain influential in many parts of the state. Maharashtra's political landscape is far more crowded than it was during Balasaheb Thackeray's time.

This does not mean the Thackerays are finished. Politics has seen many comebacks. Public opinion can change, and fortunes can turn around quickly.

But before that can happen, the Thackerays must solve a more basic problem. They need to restore confidence among their own leaders and workers. They need to convince people that their political future is still linked to the movement created by Bal Thackeray.

The departure of six MPs may not decide the future of Shiv Sena (UBT). But it is a reminder that the real battle is no longer about one election, one alliance or a handful of defectors. It is about whether the Thackeray brand can regain the influence it once enjoyed in Maharashtra politics.

That challenge is much bigger than replacing six MPs.

Sanjeev Shivadekar is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @SanjeevShivadek
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The views expressed in this column are the individual's and don't represent those of the paper.