’Tis the season for ‘reunions’

Nationalist Congress Party-SP chief Sharad Pawar. Pic/Kirti Surve Parade; Nationalist Congress Party President Ajit Pawar. Pic/Atul Kamble; Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray. Pic/satej Shinde; Maharashtra Navnirman Sena President Raj Thackeray. Pic/Ashish Raje

For the last few days, the political climate in Maharashtra has been rife with speculations about two potential reunions - one between Sharad Pawar and his estranged nephew Ajit, and the other between the always-at-loggerheads Thackeray cousins, Uddhav and Raj.

Practically speaking, reuniting both Pawars and Thackerays looks difficult. But, even if it were to happen, the process would be exceedingly complex and time-consuming, owing to a lot of conditions and compromises required for the reunions.

For the octogenarian Maratha leader, the reunion would not only be a political decision but also a personal one as it involves family dynamics and the legacy of his over five-decade-long political journey, nearly 30 of it with Congress. As Pawar Sr advances in age, the real question that could throw a spanner in the reunion works is who will carry forward his political legacy? On the one hand is daughter Supriya Sule, a five-term Member of Parliament (one Rajya Sabha and four Lok Sabha) known for her articulate political style and influence in national politics. On the other is rebel nephew Ajit (one-time MP and eight-time MLA), who has been Maharashtra's deputy chief minister for a record six terms.

So, the NCP patriarch giving party control to ‘tai' as Supriya is fondly referred to, is an option that ‘Dada's' (Ajit Pawar's nickname among party members) faction is unlikely to accept. The only option, which many in political circles feel could work, is Pawar Sr suggesting that Supriya make way for Ajit to lead the undivided party. This move may not be acceptable to Supriya and her supporters, who see her as the natural heir.

After the Lok Sabha results, Pawar Sr reaffirmed his status as a senior statesman in national, and especially Maharashtra, politics. But, within six months, the dynamics changed during the state Assembly polls and Ajit's leadership witnessed a 180-degree turn. Ajit not only emerged as a Central power broker, but party workers and leaders from his uncle-led NCP faction started shifting loyalties or asking Pawar Sr to think about a reunion. So, besides family dynamics, a crucial question is whether Pawar Sr, who has been vehemently opposing the BJP regime, will set aside his ideological beliefs and tag along with nephew Ajit who is now in government with the saffron party.

On Tuesday (May 13), Ajit, at a meeting with party office-bearers, made it clear that he has not received any reunion proposal from his uncle, indicating that reunion talks were not on, at least for now.

Thackeray reunion?

Unlike the Pawars, the case of the estranged Thackeray cousins is different as it is not about family, but more about a power game. Also, the idea of syncing these two contrasting forces under one banner is practically impossible owing to their personalities - Raj's fiery aggression versus Uddhav's measured, inclusive approach.

Raj, who is known for his firebrand speeches, in 2005, parted ways with the undivided Shiv Sena and in 2006, formed his own party, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS).

The strained relationship of the Thackeray cousins over the years has been marked by public criticism, political rivalry, and personal distance. But, as the row over the government's decision to make Hindi mandatory escalated, and both MNS and UBT camps claiming to be champions of the Marathi manoos, there were hopeful murmurs of a reunion over issues of Maharashtrian pride and the Marathi cause.

Since its inception, the MNS has struggled to maintain a consistent performance. The party made a strong debut, winning 13 seats in the 2009 Maharashtra Assembly polls and securing over five per cent vote share. But, due to flip-flops in Raj's political stance, support from the Marathi manoos and the vote bank sharply declined. The situation was such that in 2014, MNS bagged just one Assembly seat. In 2019 and 2024, the party could not even open its account, this despite Raj's fiery oratory and speeches on Hindutva witnessing huge public turnout. In fact, in 2024, the MNS vote share slipped below two per cent, a situation proclaiming that the party was losing steam and its ‘Railway Engine' election symbol as per Election Commission of India (ECI) norms.

Uddhav's Shiv Sena (UBT) has seen significant division of its traditional vote base, especially since the 2022 split engineered by Eknath Shinde. Ahead of the crucial civic elections, half (42) of UBT's former corporators have already shifted to the Shinde camp. It is said that the Sena derives its maximum power for the party with its control over the BMC. But today, for UBT, forget winning the prestigious BMC, even having a sizable representation in the civic body is an uphill task. In such a scenario, the only option for the Thackeray cousins is a strategic reunion.

Prima facie, the thought of the Thackeray cousins coming together may strike emotional and political chords. But, when the Shiv Sena supremo, the late Balasaheb Thackeray, could not prevent the split between his son Uddhav and nephew Raj, it is unlikely that the two Thackeray scions will patch up, despite their survival and political clout being at stake.

The reunion, if it, indeed, happens, may come as a breather, but it is so late that now even the consolidation of Marathi votes may not guarantee their win.
If these reunions remain nothing more than political drama and rumours, one thing is sure: the Opposition in the state will be unable to apply the brakes on the growing popularity of the BJP in the state and at the Centre.

Sanjeev Shivadekar is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @SanjeevScribe

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