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Home > Buzzfeed > Skill Strategy and Innovation IIT and VMLS Report Validate Opinion Trading as Indias Newest Fantasy Game Trend

Skill, Strategy, and Innovation: IIT and VMLS Report Validate Opinion Trading as India’s Newest Fantasy Game Trend

Updated on: 30 June,2025 05:37 PM IST  |  Mumbai
Buzzfeed | faizan.farooqui@mid-day.com

The report’s most compelling contribution lies in its application of game theory to understand the mechanics of opinion trading.

Skill, Strategy, and Innovation: IIT and VMLS Report Validate Opinion Trading as India’s Newest Fantasy Game Trend

IIT and VML

A landmark report published by Evam Law & Policy in association with Vinayaka Mission’s Law School is challenging conventional perceptions of real-money gaming in India. Titled “Skill in Opinion Trading”, the report dissects the structure, performance data, and legal standing of opinion trading platforms, also known as sports trading and builds a compelling case that these platforms represent a cutting-edge format where strategic skill determines outcomes. Drawing from an extensive analysis of various relevant platforms, the report proposes that this rapidly emerging genre is not merely a gaming alternative but a fundamentally innovative system rooted in behavioural analysis, economic modelling, and game theory.

Opinion trading diverges from traditional fantasy gaming formats in its architecture. Rather than creating a team or setting stakes, users engage with dynamic, real-world events in player vs. player formats by backing outcomes. These events fluctuate in value based on public sentiment and trading volume, creating a live, evolving market. There is no central entity determining odds or outcomes. This foundational difference transforms opinion trading into a multi-layered experience demanding analytical reasoning, real-time decision-making, and cognitive adaptability.

Game Theory and Strategic Innovation at the Core

The report’s most compelling contribution lies in its application of game theory to understand the mechanics of opinion trading. As described through the work of Professor Saptarshi Mukherjee of IIT Delhi, in opinion trading, players act with information, constantly revising their beliefs based on shifting conditions and the behaviour of other participants. In opinion trading, the success of a move depends heavily on timing, competitor behaviour, and informational advantages. Players must act strategically, not only in terms of their positions but also in anticipating how others will react to unfolding events.

These dynamics mirror real-world applications of game theory, especially in how they reward iterative learning. As seen in repeated games, experienced players on these platforms improve over time, adjusting strategies and sharpening their judgment. The data confirms that player performance correlates strongly with experience. Players who made more trades consistently saw higher win rates and returns on investment. This pattern of skill development is a clear marker that the games foster learning, much like competitive chess or Poker.

Additional strategies embedded in gameplay, such as early exits, price layering, and diversified positions, further deepen the skill element. Users who learn to use these tools intelligently perform significantly better than those who do not. They also display behaviour aligned with evolutionary game theory: over time, players discard unproductive strategies and adopt successful ones, leading to an ecosystem where adaptability and reasoning are rewarded.

Empirical Evidence Shows Clear Learning and Performance Gaps

To substantiate its theoretical framework, the report dives into rich datasets drawn from the three major opinion trading platforms in India. The results are unequivocal. On Probo, players who performed well in one month were highly likely to replicate that success in the following month. This persistence of performance, statistically impossible in a game of pure chance, indicates that users are leveraging real skill rather than luck. Similarly, platforms like MPL Opinio showed that high performers regularly outpaced their peers by wide margins, creating skewed distributions of win rates and profits.

The presence of a learning curve was further affirmed through a comparative analysis of new and experienced users. Players with more trade volume not only scored higher but also adopted more advanced strategies such as early exits and multi-price point positioning. In contrast, newer users tended to follow simpler, often linear behaviours and recorded significantly lower success rates. This difference not only points to the transferability of learning but also shows that skill, once acquired, enhances performance consistently.

What further strengthens the case is that platforms like Probo have even tested structured learning interventions. A targeted coaching initiative showed measurable improvements in user outcomes, reinforcing the idea that performance in opinion trading can be improved through education and strategic training, something impossible in games that rely solely on chance.

Regulatory Recognition Must Catch Up With Innovation

Despite the robust evidence presented in the report, opinion trading in India still exists in a grey regulatory zone. Unlike fantasy sports, which have been recognised by Indian courts as games of skill, opinion trading remains subject to varying interpretations. This lack of legal clarity hampers innovation and deters investment in a sector poised for explosive growth. The report strongly argues that opinion trading satisfies the legal tests traditionally applied by Indian courts to distinguish games of skill from games of chance. These include the predominance of skill in outcomes, the demonstrable presence of a learning curve, and the consistent superiority of informed players over uninformed ones.

The authors draw parallels with landmark judgments such as RMD Chamarbaugwala and State of Andhra Pradesh v. Satyanarayana, which have set precedents for defining skill-based games in India. Applying the same standards, the report concludes that opinion trading not only meets but exceeds these benchmarks, due to the involvement of multi-layered decision-making, strategic behaviour, and measurable learning progression.

In the context of India’s digital economy, where online gaming is projected to reach over USD 7 billion by 2028, regulatory recognition of formats like opinion trading is essential. The report highlights that more than 50 million users in India are already engaging with these platforms, generating billions in transaction value. Yet, without a clear legal framework, the sector remains vulnerable to policy swings and misconceptions.

The Future of Gaming is Cognitive, Strategic, and Real-Time

What emerges from this report is more than a technical analysis of a gaming format; it is a vision of the future of digital play. Opinion trading combines the immediacy of real-world events with the cognitive demand of strategic reasoning, making it one of the most intellectually engaging formats to emerge from the fantasy gaming ecosystem. It demands quick thinking, real-time data processing, and a nuanced understanding of human behaviour.. In this way, it transforms gaming into a platform for skill development, mental agility, and even economic participation.

As India's gaming industry continues to mature, formats like opinion trading will not remain on the margins. They represent the next stage of digital innovation, one where users are not passive participants but strategic agents navigating live, competitive environments. With robust empirical backing and a strong legal argument in its favour, sports trading now stands as a formidable example of how gaming, economics, and innovation can intersect to redefine skill in the 21st century.

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