The fate of the Yeddyurappa government may be in the hands of the dissidents, but they are themselves not sure whether speaker KG Bopaih will disqualify some of them.

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The fate of the Yeddyurappa government may be in the hands of the dissidents, but they are themselves not sure whether speaker KG Bopaih will disqualify some of them.

As the Chief Minister seeks a vote of confidence today, the fate of the Yeddyurappa government seems to be in the hands of 'black sheep' as the leaders are claiming to have booked MLAs from opposite camps.

Another deciding factor is KG Bopaih, the speaker, clearly a CM's man, who is dangling the sword of disqualification on the heads of the dissidents.

HD Kumaraswamy, former chief minister and state president of JD(S), is claiming that 17 (11 from the BJP and six independents) are with him to vote against the government. Apart from this, he is also expecting sympathy from some of the loyalists.

Who is with whom?
However, BJP leaders are claiming that some of the 11 BJP dissidents will vote for the government, while they have 'booked' a handful of legislators from Congress and JD(S).

"Everyone is claiming to have mustered the numbers, but God knows who is with whom," said Girish Mattennavar, former president of BJP Yuva Morcha. "Only a midnight miracle can save the government. If it does not happen, a Governor's rule is certain."

As their strategy, BJP has convinced Bopaih to disqualify the dissident MLAs so that the strength of the house comes down with less MLAs opposing the government.

Apart from this, it is also expected that Bopaih may suspend four JD(S) members in an old misbehaviour case in the assembly.

"The BJP is trying to use the speaker as a tool to reduce the number of opposing MLAs so that Yeddyurappa sails smooth on the vote of confidence," said a source in the party.

According to sources, Governor HR Bhardwaj had written to the Speaker asking him to maintain full strength of the house and not to disqualify anyone. Speaker retaliated by saying that the Governor had no say in this, indicating his loyalty to the CM.

The source said that Yeddyurappa was counting on dissidents, who can come back to his fold -- the rest would be disqualified. As if to prove this, Bopaih heard the lawyers of the dissidents yesterday, on a show-cause notice he had issued to them and reserved the judgment.

As a part of the strategy, the speaker is expected to soft peddle on the legislators from the opposition parties, who would abstain in order to favour Yeddyurappa, by not pursuing hard on their disqualification.

All's well with Cong
"It is true that our MLAs were approached by the BJP," said Krishna Byre Gowda, a Congress legislator. "I hope nobody from us will go to the other side."

With opposition parties anticipating a partisan role of the speaker, it looks certain that the scene in the assembly may turn hostile today.

Total members in the house - 224
Congress's strength 73
JD's strength 28
Dissidents 13
Independent 6
BJP's strength 106 including speaker
Now BJP needs 112 to stay back in