Chinese shift poses new challenges to India

China is changing the ways it deals with the world This could be both good news and bad At one level this is happening because of an accumulation of events that have taken place over the last five years At another it arises from decisions being consciously taken by the Chinese leadershipThe events of the last five years are well known They include greater Chinese assertiveness in the East China Sea and South China Sea and a changed pattern of incursions on the SinoIndian border as well as the response to this in the form of the American ldquopivotrdquo to Asia to reassure its allies like Japan and the PhilippinesAt a speech to a CEOrsquos Forum during the AsiaPacific Economic Cooperation APEC meeting in November China President Xi Jinping pointed to the ways in which China is seeking to align the interests of its neighbours with its rise and thereby convince them that it is not threatening PicGetty ImagesThis has fed into the Chinese thought processes manifested in meetings of the party brass and plenums At the ldquoCentral Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairsrdquo a major event held in Beijing on November 2829 President Xi Jinping called on his colleagues to create a ldquomore enabling environmentrdquo for Chinarsquos development What was unique about the conference was the presence of the entire lineup of the top Chinese leadership the Politburo Standing Committee the other members of the politburo the military brass from the Central Military Commission downward ministers and high officialsXirsquos remarks were nuanced and appear designed to distance China from its brash and assertive posture which has generated considerable unease in the regions neighbouring China At the same time what Xi is also doing is inaugurating a new stage in Chinarsquos foreign policy one characterised by greater activism but at the same time not appearing as threateningIf you deconstruct the Xinhua description of the meetingrsquos outcome you come to the conclusion that what the Chinese leadership is seeking is new ways of pursuing its national interests Till now despite its impressive capabilities it is still a relatively passive power as is evident from the Chinese absence in dealing with any of the serious global crises like Ukraine Syria or AfghanistanNow China wants to use its enormous economic muscle to buy friends and win influence To that end it has unveiled a massive investment plan aimed at helping friends sidestepping enemies and advancing the integration of the Asian economy One part of this relates to dealings with Russia and developing energy linkages with it Another aspect is the land Silk Route moving out to Central Asia and from their south to Pakistan and Gulf The third is the Maritime Silk Route seeking to build on Chinarsquos already important economic relationship with Southeast Asia And finally something which is still a gleam in their eye the Bangladesh India China Myanmar BICM corridor You can avoid the Chinese embrace at the risk of being bypassed by the new networks that the Chinese are shapingAt a speech to a CEOrsquos Forum on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in November Xi pointed to the ways in which the world would gain from Chinarsquos rise He said Chinarsquos outbound investment would be around 125 trillion over the next ten years it would import 10 trillion worth of goods over the next five years 500 million Chinese tourists would go abroad and the government would put up 40 billion for the Silk Road initiative China is seeking is to align the interests of its neighbours with its rise and thereby convince them that it is not threateningThe Chinese understanding of its new foreign policy requires it to maintain an even keel in its relations with the worldrsquos greatest power the United States of America In 2013 at Sunnylands Xi had sought to pin down the US on a ldquoNew Type of Great Power Relationsrdquo But the Americans did not bite because even though it spoke of avoiding confrontation it also demanded that the Americans respect what China called its ldquocore interestsrdquo and which certainly included its maritime claimsChina has been particularly concerned about the role of the US in backing Japan and the Southeast Asian countries As part of this it has undertaken some dangerous confrontations with US naval vessels and aircraft However at the sidelines of the APEC summit in November China and the US agreed to regulate this process through two agreements One which provides a mechanism for notifying the two countries of each otherrsquos activities including military exercises The second sets rules of behaviour in cases of encounters in the sea and air At the same the XiAbe meeting has served to defuse the growing tensions with JapanEven so in his speech at the 2829th November Work Conference Xi made it clear that ldquoThe growing trend toward a multipolar world will not changerdquo In other words Chinarsquos relative power would grow and that of the US would decline In the ultimate analysis ldquoTodayrsquos world is changing the international system and international order are going through deep adjustmenthelliprdquo and ldquointernational forces are in profound shift in favor of peace and development read ChinardquoThe Chinese shift poses new and different kind of challenges to India Even while we are working feverishly to ensure the defence of our Himalyan border militarily the Chinese are throwing an economic challenge as manifested by its growing ties with Sri Lanka Bangladesh Maldives and NepalThe writer is a Distinguished Fellow Observer Research Foundation New Delhi