Gold price 2026.
Gold traded above $5,000 per ounce for the first time in January 2026, capping a 12-month run that added more than 66% to the metal's value. For many investors, the rally came as a surprise. For Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins, the warning signs had been visible for years.
A review of Millman's commentary from 2023 through early 2025 shows a consistent throughline: slowing GDP growth, recession fears, persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and central banks diversifying away from dollar-denominated assets. Each of those conditions has now materialized in force.
Back in August 2024, Millman pointed to a confluence of economic pressures driving gold's appeal.
"When people are concerned about the economy or what's going to happen during a recession, it does drive safe-haven flows into the gold market," he said. "Those right now seem to be the two biggest factors that are top of mind for everyone, and in general they're both bullish for gold."
At the time, unemployment had climbed from roughly 3.5% to 4.5% in a short span, and inflation still had not returned to the Fed's 2% target. Millman framed it as a "confluence of factors." Not a single catalyst, but multiple indicators pointing toward a softer economy. Gold's performance since then has supported that analysis.
He also flagged political uncertainty as a consistent, if underappreciated, driver. Election cycles tend to push gold higher, he noted, because investors price in the unknown of a new administration's economic direction. That dynamic played out through late 2024 and into 2025, as policy volatility under the incoming Trump administration amplified demand for safe-haven assets.
Perhaps the most durable theme across Millman's commentary was central bank demand. He described it as a secular trend rather than a cyclical one.
"When retail investors are buying gold by the ounces, central banks are buying it by the metric ton," he said in 2024. "It is a very, very strong source of gold demand globally."
That assessment held. According to J.P. Morgan Global Research, central bank purchases averaged around 190 tonnes per quarter in 2026. This figure is well above the pre-2022 average of roughly 17 tonnes per month cited by Goldman Sachs. China's central bank extended its buying streak to 15 consecutive months through January 2026.
Millman's explanation for why emerging market central banks were accumulating gold also proved accurate.
"They're trying to diversify away from having all their eggs in the basket of the U.S. economy," he said. "Gold is just the most logical alternative."
Gold's all-time high of $5,589.38, reached on Jan. 28, 2026, did not arrive in a vacuum. It was the product of years of mounting pressure. Inflation failed to fully retreat. Geopolitical tensions deepened. Investors began reassessing what constitutes a reliable reserve asset.
Millman has consistently framed precious metals not as a speculative trade but as portfolio insurance.
"Holding some gold and silver in case of an emergency is a prudent way of protecting yourself," he said in 2024. "Are their investments diversified enough to weather that potential storm?"
With J.P. Morgan forecasting gold to average $5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, and Goldman Sachs raising its December 2026 target to $5,400, the conditions Millman identified years ago show no sign of abating.
The record run may feel sudden. The groundwork was anything but.
