Study reveals mosquito-borne diseases perceived as rapidly escalating threats to humanity

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Mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue could be the most rapidly escalating threats to humanity, followed by tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS, with climate change emerging as a primary driver of disease escalation, according to a survey of over 3,700 health professionals and researchers from across 151 countries.

Socioeconomic inequality, which can impact one's access to healthcare, and antimicrobial resistance that can undermine treatments against wide-ranging infections may also contribute to disease escalation, said the participants, nearly 90 per cent of whom were based in low and middle-income countries.

Climate change, poverty and drug resistance could be coming together to create an escalating health crisis that could become a "creeping catastrophe" if left unaddressed, findings published in the journal Scientific Reports say.

"Whilst there remains the possibility of a new pathogen emerging anywhere in the world, our results reveal a consensus that the next pandemic might not be a sudden event but could creep up as a slowly-building humanitarian disaster, as the catastrophic burden of endemic diseases escalates and hits new, vulnerable communities across different geographies," authors from the UK's University of Oxford wrote.

Studies have shown that rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns due to global warming is creating conditions conducive for mosquitoes to breed.

Senior author Trudie Lang, director of The Global Health Network at University of Oxford's Nuffield Department of Medicine, said the study provides "evidence from communities experiencing these threats from climate change right now across the Global South, where disease burdens are highest".

The regions are under-represented and not collectively voiced, but data and insights are grounded in lived experience and global diversity, Lang said.

"Our research clearly demonstrates that the next major health emergency may not be a sudden new outbreak, but the steady worsening of the quiet diseases that shorten lives every day," the senior author said.

The researchers added that the risk of the health emergency will not present as a dramatic outbreak, but as a slow-unfolding humanitarian disaster where endemic diseases spread into new geographies -- impacting health systems and economies.

"Climate change is driving the spread of infectious diseases, and it's hitting hardest in communities least able to adapt," said Josie Golding, head of epidemics and epidemiology, infectious disease, Wellcome Trust, UK, which commissioned the research project.

"Rising temperatures, floods, and droughts create ideal conditions for mosquitoes, ticks, and harmful bacteria to thrive, while extreme weather adds strain to already fragile health systems," Golding said.

Urgent global climate action is needed, along with an investment in innovative solutions to prevent and treat infectious diseases -- acting on both fronts is essential, Golding said.

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