15 May,2026 06:46 PM IST | Mumbai | mid-day online correspondent
IMD announced that the southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala around May 26, with a model error of four days. Representational pic
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday announced that the southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala around May 26, with a model error of four days.
The advance of the southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala and is an important indicator characterising the transition from the hot and dry season to the rainy season. As the monsoon progresses northwards, relief from scorching summer temperatures is experienced over the areas. Southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days.
IMD said its operational forecasts during the past 21 years (2005-2025) were proved to be correct except in 2015.
Conditions are already favourable for the advance of the southwest monsoon over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands within the next 24 hours, the weather bureau said.
In its latest press release, IMD highlighted that while the monsoon is progressing normally, large parts of northwest and central India will continue to reel under heatwave to severe heat wave conditions for the coming week.
Heavy to extremely heavy rainfall occurred at isolated places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh, Coastal and North Interior Karnataka, Assam, and Meghalaya. BP Ghat in Assam and Meghalaya recorded a massive 27 cm of rainfall.
Thunderstorms with squally/gusty winds (50-75 kilometre per hour) lashed many areas including Rajasthan, Punjab, Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh, Chhattisgarh, and Gujarat. Winds of 30-50 kmph were reported across several other states.
Hailstorm was reported in isolated pockets of Punjab.
Heatwave conditions prevailed in isolated pockets over Saurashtra and Kutch, West Rajasthan, South Madhya Pradesh, and adjoining interior Maharashtra. The highest maximum temperature of 45.9 degrees Celsius was recorded at Akola (Maharashtra).
Rainfall and thunderstorms
Northeast India will see scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall, especially over Assam and Meghalaya (including isolated very heavy rain over south Assam on Friday), Arunachal Pradesh, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and Sikkim.
South Peninsular India: Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Mahe, and South Interior Karnataka in the next three-four days. Very heavy rain expected at isolated places in Kerala and Mahe on Friday.
Scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds (40-50 kmph) will affect Kerala, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and other southern regions.
Heatwave to severe heatwave is likely over West Rajasthan (severe during May 18-21), Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, and parts of Maharashtra, and Gujarat.
Gradual rise in maximum temperatures is expected over Western Himalayas and plains of northwest India.
May 15: Partly cloudy with a spell of very light to light rain/thunderstorm and strong winds (40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph) in the evening/night. Maximum temperatures are likely to hover around 40-42 degrees Celsius.
Temperatures will gradually rise, reaching 42-44 degrees Celsius by May 18, with strong surface winds.
IMD has advised fishermen not to venture into the Bay of Bengal (Gulf of Mannar, Comorin area, south and eastcentral Bay) and Arabian Sea (off Kerala, Karnataka, Lakshadweep, and Somalia coast) till May 20 due to rough seas and strong winds.
Thunderstorms/squalls: Risk of tree damage, power lines, and injury from hail. IMD has advised people to stay indoors, avoid open areas, and water bodies.
Heavy rainfall: Possibility of waterlogging, landslides in hilly areas, and damage to crops. Farmers urged to ensure proper drainage and safeguard standing crops, the weather bureau appealed.
Heatwave: High risk of heat illness. Vulnerable groups (elderly, children, outdoor workers) should avoid direct sun exposure, stay hydrated, and use ORS/lemon water.
IMD has urged citizens to keep track of updates through its website and district-wise warnings. As the lead period increases, forecast accuracy may decrease. For detailed district-level forecasts and warnings, citizens can visit the official IMD portal.
