With global markets doing well and current account deficit improving, the outlook for Indian markets is positive
On the last day of the trading week, markets closed in the negative. Nifty has immediate support at 5700 and 5665. The outlook for the market is still positive and it may test 5920 levels in the short term. Investors with short-term view can buy one lot of 5800 call options and can sell two lots of 6000 call options, on assumption that market may reach 5950-6000 levels.
By the end of this month, the government will come out with the final guidelines on the implementation of General Anti Avoidance Rules (GAAR), which is based on the recommendations of the Shome panel. GAAR, which would target companies and investors routing money through tax havens, is expecting to be softer on other investors. The panel also drafted a report on the issue of retrospectively taxing overseas deals involving local assets. The Finance Minister said that the income tax rules might be modified to meet the panel’s recommendations.
For accelerating long-term fund flows to infrastructure projects, the finance ministry will soon finalise the draft of the Infrastructure Debt Fund (IDF). The IDF would be based on a tripartite agreement among developer, lender (bank) and IDF.
The RBI released the current account deficit — it is down to $16.55 billion in the April– June quarter of the current fiscal from $21.76 billion in the preceding January– March quarter. This decrease is because imports declined by 3.6 per cent while exports declined by 2.6 per cent. The deficit, in proportion to the GDP, rose to 3.9 per cent as compared to 3.85 per cent a year ago. But RBI Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn said that the current account deficit is still outside the central bank’s comfort zone.
According to a survey that tracked Indian services’ growth in the past seven months, it was found that the pace was fastest in September as the government stepped up efforts to revive economic expansion. The purchasing managers’ index rose to 55.8 from 55 in August. Since November 2011, the index has stayed above the 50 mark, indicating expansion.
For raising funds and narrowing the fiscal deficit, the government is planning to sell its shares in Axis Bank, ITC and L&T. Based on the recent prices of these stocks, the government’s holding in these three companies are far more than its disinvestment target for 2012-13 from sales of shares in public sector companies.
International gold is still positive and it is all set to break the $1804 mark and it may even test $1840. Investors who are tracking international gold price can buy domestic gold futures along with rupee put option.
The Indian Rupee soared to a near six-month high against the dollar as the government came out with more foreign investment in the financial sector. In the cash segment, Britannia, Nestle, Selan Exploration and Dolphin Offshore also can be bought for short-term perspective. Investors can take long positions in call option of 230 RECL, PFC 200 call.
On the global front, markets were trading higher on the better-than-expected economic data of the US and the European Central Bank’s assurance to buy bonds of troubled euro zone states, such as Spain, when they request aid.
Investors looking at Indian markets may focus on the earnings of the companies. Major results to be announced next week include Infosys, HDFC Bank, Indus Ind Bank, TTK Prestige and RS Software.
Alex K Mathews is the author of Financial Services And Systems, as well as Option Trading: Bear Market Strategies published by Tata McGraw Hill. He is also the technical and derivatives research head of Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services Ltd. The author may have a vested interest in investments he has recommended. Feel free to e-mail him at firstname.lastname@example.org. Geojit BNP Paribas has membership in, and is listed on, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).
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