Shadow of the polls on stock market

Apr 21, 2014, 08:28 IST | Arun Kejriwal

It is choppy days and some churning ahead, as markets follow moves on political chessboard

It was a mere three trading day last week with holidays on Monday and Friday. The markets went into correction on Tuesday and Wednesday and it appeared that the current rally was having its first major correction, when things just reversed on Thursday.

Bollywood actor and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate for Patna parliamentary seat Shatrughan Sinha (second R) and BJP candidate for Amritsar's parliamentary seat Arun Jaitley (second L)  during an election campaign event in Amritsar. Pic/AFP
Bollywood actor and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate for Patna parliamentary seat Shatrughan Sinha (second R) and BJP candidate for Amritsar's parliamentary seat Arun Jaitley (second L)  during an election campaign event in Amritsar. Pic/AFP

The entire losses were recovered and markets closed as flat as a doormat. New intraday highs were not made as the market fell for the first two days but the momentum remained intact. The BSESENSEX lost 0.12 points or 0.00 per cent to close at 22,628.84 points.

The Nifty gained 3.10 points or 0.05 per cent at 6,779.40 points. The BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lost an identical 0.11 per cent. The Midcap gained 0.01 per cent as did the Smallcap gaining similar amount.

The top sectoral gainer was BSE FMCG up 2.20 per cent followed by BSEIT up 0.82 per cent and BSEAUTO up 0.63 per cent. The losers were led by BSEREALTY down 4.14 per cent, BSECONDUR down 1.62 per cent and BSECAPGOODS down 1.07 per cent.

The IT companies declared their results and there seemed to be some difference in performance between the pack of Wipro, HCL Tech and TCS as compared to Infosys. Something is amiss and though people may dismiss the event lightly resignations at the top just seem to continue.

Wipro gained 3.10 per cent, TCS was up 2.48 per cent and HCL Tech up 1.64 per cent. Even though there were no expectations from Infosys the stock lost 1.42 per cent. In other gainers, were Cairn India up 2.87 per cent, ITC up 2.72 per cent and ICICI Bank up 2.10 per cent. The losers were led by HDFC down 4.14 per cent. Other losers included IOC down 3.01 per cent and Tata Power down 2.96 per cent.

FIIs continued to be small buyers during the last week and bought equity worth Rs 279 crore while domestic institutions sold shares worth Rs 669 crore. The Indian Rupee was quite stable during the week but lost Rs 0.11 or 0.18 per cent to close at Rs 60.29. The Dow Jones saw a smart recovery and gained 381.79 points or 2.38 per cent to close at 16,408.54 points. The Dow continues to trade around its lifetime high which was at 16,631 points.

This week as a trading holiday on Thursday for the sixth round of elections. The fifth round held last Thursday was the biggest with elections for 121 seats being held. With five rounds completed fate of 230 seats out of 543 seats has been decided by the electorate.

The markets are now discounting the fact that there would be a change of government which would be stable and would be led by the BJP. How many seats and whether the party would have a majority or close to majority on its own is yet to be confirmed. With this sentiment and retail not participating, markets are unlikely to fall in any significant manner though corrections will happen.

Expiry for April series would happen on Wednesday and the March series had expired at 6,641.75 points. The current close is higher by 137 points or 2.07 per cent. The bulls appear to be in control and one should not expect any selling pressure on expiry.

Wonderla Holidays Limited which runs two amusement parks in Kochi and Bengaluru is tapping the capital markets with its issue for 1.45 crore shares in a price band of Rs 115-125. There seems to be interest picking up in this issue as it would be the first of its kind in the listed space.

There is a Kolkata based company by the name of Nicco Parks which is listed but not comparable. I believe the issue would get subscribed and offer listing gains to investors. I recommend applying the minimum 100 shares only as oversubscription would lead to allotment of only 100 shares.

Markets are likely remain choppy ahead of expiry and await new developments and news from the political arena. Friday the start of May series would open with a bang and would be full of drama and high volatility.

While money making opportunities would be in plenty, one would have to play with the mind and not the heart. Key levels for the Sensex are 22,455 and 22,875 while they are 6,725 and 6,845 for the Nifty. The support for the Sensex is at 22,544 points, then at 22,391 points, then at 22,280 points, and finally at 22,040 points.

It has resistance at 22,696 points, then at 22,871 points, then at 22,985 points and finally at 23,195 points. The Nifty has support at 6,749 points, then at 6,703 points, then at 6,678 points and finally at 6,586 points. It has resistance at 6,796 points, then at 6,844 points, then at 6,932 points and finally at 7,015 points.

Arun Kejriwal is founder of the Mumbai-based advisory firm Kejriwal Research & Investment Services Pvt Ltd. Readers are invited to read more about these and other issues on his website

Disclaimer: No financial information whatsoever published anywhere in this newspaper should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, or as advice to do so in any way whatsoever. All matter published here is for educational and information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for actual trading or making investment decisions. Readers must consult a qualified financial advisor prior to making any actual investment or trading decisions, based on information published here. Any reader taking decisions based on any information published here does so entirely at his or her risk.

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