Free trade agreements, an ‘aina’ on China, the dollar dominance and new equations, it is all happening in a time of tariff and tumult
Anant Singhania puts a lens on the future. PIC/BY SPECIAL ARRANGEMENT
Even as a US appeals court ruled that most tariffs issued by US President Donald Trump are illegal, they are still in place, as the ruling will not take effect till October 14, and the India-China meet is being looked at with great interest, Anant Ajaypat Singhania, former president, IMC Chamber of Commerce and Industry, speaks out on firmness or foolishness, uncertainty angst and a new India.
Excerpts from an interview:
Expect the unexpected, unpredictable, and even outrageous from Donald Trump. If there was any doubt, the tariffs proved that…
The much-heard statement is that tariffs are biting. Yet, what is equally — if not more — unsettling is the uncertainty surrounding the tariff policy. This uncertainty prevents businesses from planning investments with confidence. Today, the tariff rate on my goods may be manageable, but will it rise tomorrow? Should I hold back on my textile investment in India or shift it to Bangladesh or Vietnam? And even then, would those locations remain safe if new tariffs were imposed because of unrelated geopolitical decisions, such as importing oil from Russia?
Do you call India refusing to cave in misplaced inflexibility, or is it necessary to stand firm?
India, for its part, has moved forward on several trade agreements. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the UAE, which concluded in just 88 days, is a powerful symbol of a new regime and a new India. It underscores why we must stand firm and resist pressure. This is not the India of the 1990s. We are a large nation, the fastest-growing economy in the world, and we cannot be dictated to in the same manner as before.
That said, the depth of India’s connection with the United States cannot be ignored. A substantial share of our exports goes there, and our diaspora plays a critical role in building bridges. Naturally, there must be give and take, but such reciprocity has to be genuine. We may adapt to different consumer habits at home, but technologies and the global dominance of the dollar cannot be replaced so easily.
India has been singled out, unfairly, over Russian oil…
India has already signed a number of free trade agreements, and the emerging approach will be to diversify markets. By securing a foothold in new regions and expanding from there, we will gradually reduce dependence on any single partner. If trade with a wide range of countries becomes firmly established, returning to a US-centric model may no longer be necessary. In such a scenario, the pressure could shift, and the United States may have to adjust its stance. At present, it resembles a contest of who blinks first.
India also feels singled out for criticism over oil imports from Russia. Yet, in time, there may be recognition that such treatment has been unfair. Beyond trade statistics, one can draw on a broader principle: in economics as in life, unfairness is never sustainable. It cannot last indefinitely.
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