Warning bell

Fearing a Haiti-type quake, government confirms pre-seismic planning activities are on in full swing to retrofit schools and hospitals

Noted Pune-based seismologist Dr Arun Bapat had written a letter to the then Lt Governor of Andaman on Aug 4, 2004 warning of the possibility of an earthquake in the Andamans within 100 days. Nobody took him seriously. On December 2004, a massive quake shook Andamans, unleashing a massive tsunami that caused death and destruction.

The same scientist has now issued a warning and we hope that he is wrong this time. He has cautioned Delhi administration to be on guard, expressing the fear that an earthquake, similar to the one in Haiti could hit Delhi with its epicenter somewhere between Himachal Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh.

Warning signs
Bapat told MiD DAY, "The National Capital Region (NCR) is exposed to two types of seismic disasters. The first one might occur within a 30-50 km radius from Delhi. The other type could be due to the occurrence of an earthquake of large magnitude in the Himalayas."

Bapat said there are several tall structures in Delhi that are more than 17 metres, and are situated between 150-550 km from the possible epicenter of a large earthquake and could suffer heavy damage due to long-period seismic waves, commonly known as Reyleigh Waves.

Dr Bapat has said in the paper that the northwest Himalayan areas in Himachal and Uttaranchal is undergoing stress building activity. The probability of occurrence of a large magnitude earthquake is very high. Its epicenter would be located at a distance of about 270-320 km from NCR region Delhi. Under such conditions the tall structures in Delhi could suffer heavy damage.

Chandan Ghosh, member of National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM), New Delhi, confirmed that there is a possibility of massive earthquake hitting the Himalayan region that may have a devastating effect on New Delhi and hence the NIDM is going on an overdrive to create awareness among the people. "We are conducting a five-day programme on February 15 to impart training to government officials, town planners, engineers and architect on strengthening weak buildings by retrofitting. We are also conducting microgeneration to study underground soils and make geological studies as to which type of soils may undergo liquefaction in case of a massive earthquake."