Imports from Russia had fallen from over 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in June to 1.6 million bpd in September. However, tanker-tracking data for early October indicate a rebound, with shipments of Urals and other Russian grades picking up pace
Indian PM Narendra Modi with Russian President Vladimir Putin. File pic
India’s crude oil imports from Russia picked up in the first half of October, reversing a three-month decline in arrivals seen between July and September, as refineries resumed full operations to meet festive-season demand, news agency PTI reported, citing ship-tracking data.
Imports from Russia had fallen from over 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in June to 1.6 million bpd in September. However, tanker-tracking data for early October indicate a rebound, with shipments of Urals and other Russian grades picking up pace. This was supported by renewed discounts amid slack demand in Western markets and greater shipping flexibility.
Preliminary data from global trade analytics firm Kpler show October imports tracking around 1.8 million bpd, up roughly 250,000 lakh bpd from September, though figures for the current month remain subject to revision, PTI reported.
The data precede US President Donald Trump’s statement on Wednesday in which he had claimed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to stop Russian crude imports. Ministry of External Affairs Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, however, said he was not aware of any such phone conversation.
Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst (refining and modelling) at Kpler, said that Trump’s statement was more likely a pressure tactic linked to trade negotiations rather than a signal of an imminent policy shift.
“Russian barrels remain deeply embedded in India’s energy system for economic, contractual, and strategic reasons,” he added.
Indian refiners also said they have not yet received any government directive to halt Russian oil imports.
India began purchasing Russian oil at discounted rates after Western countries imposed sanctions on Moscow and shunned its supplies following the Ukraine invasion in February 2022.
Russia’s share in India’s total crude imports has risen from just 1.7 per cent in 2019–20 to 40 per cent in 2023–24, making it India’s largest oil supplier.
In the first half of October, Russia continued to remain India’s largest supplier.
Iraq was the second-largest supplier at around 1.01 million bpd, followed by Saudi Arabia at 830,000 bpd, PTI reported. The US overtook the UAE to become India’s fourth-largest supplier at 647,000 bpd, while the UAE supplied 394,000 bpd, according to Kpler.
Ritolia emphasised the strategic importance of Russian crude for India.
“Russian crude remains structurally vital for India, accounting for roughly 34 per cent of its total imports and offering compelling discounts that are too significant for refiners to ignore,” he said.
Ritolia further explained that the July–September dip in imports was driven less by tariff concerns and more by seasonal factors, particularly maintenance activity at PSU refineries such as MRPL, CPCL, and BORL.
“Most contracts for deliveries up to early September were finalised 6–10 weeks in advance, meaning deals were largely locked in before July 31. So dips in July–September were mostly due to refinery processing less crude in view of maintenance schedules,” he added.
Even with narrower discounts than in 2023, Russian barrels remain among the most economical feedstock options for Indian refiners due to landed discounts and high GPW (Gross Product Worth) margins from grades such as Urals.
Discounts now average USD 3.5–5 per barrel, up from USD 1.5–2 in July and August.
Replacing Russian crude is technically feasible, as India could source more barrels from the Middle East, Latin America, and the US, similar to the pre-2022 crude slate. Indian refineries are capable of handling diverse crude grades, so technical constraints are minimal.
However, Ritolia said, “The reality is that cutting Russian imports would be difficult, costly, and risky.” Substitution would require rapid scaling from multiple suppliers at higher costs, including freight and weaker discounts. Any margin compression or rise in retail prices could lead to inflation, political backlash, and lower refinery profitability.
He noted that refiners are unlikely to forgo discounted Russian crude unless directed by the government, similar to the approach with Iranian barrels. While diversification efforts continue, contracts for Russian crude are usually signed 6–10 weeks before delivery. “In practice, Indian refiners are gradually broadening their baskets, not to replace Russia in the short term, but to enhance energy security, continuity, and flexibility,” he said.
India has consistently pursued an independent foreign and energy policy, balancing economic interests with diplomatic relationships. A sudden shift away from Russian crude would undermine its energy security strategy and is unlikely unless formal sanctions—similar to those on Iran or Venezuela—are imposed.
“At this stage, it's improbable that India will implement structural cuts purely to satisfy US and EU political pressure. If Washington intensifies pressure, Indian refiners could make a token reduction—on the order of 100,000–200,000 bpd—to demonstrate diversification and appease Western partners. However, these cuts would likely be symbolic rather than transformative,” Ritolia added.
Increasing imports from the US to placate Trump is possible, but the upside is limited to around 400,000–500,000 bpd due to logistical, economic, and compatibility challenges with Indian refining systems. Kpler data show Indian imports of US crude have averaged 310,000 bpd so far in 2025, up from 199,000 bpd in 2024, with expected October imports reaching a yearly high of approximately 500,000 bpd.
(With PTI inputs)
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