For Uddhav and Raj Thackeray, winning the civic polls could prove to be a challenge as legacy may not be enough to woo voters, who are looking for progress, employment, growth, and real change
If Raj and Uddhav Thackeray want their political brand to survive in Maharashtra in the long run, they will have to rebuild the Marathi voter base. Pic/Rane Ashish
With the Thackeray cousins inching towards a political reunion, Raj and Uddhav may have struck an emotional chord with the Marathi manoos. But emotion alone cannot win elections. The real challenge of reviving the Marathi voter base and winning back lost ground is no less than ‘Mission Impossible’ for the cousins. They will have to blend emotional connect with aspirational: delivery on promises, jobs, growth and real change for the local Marathi population.
The cousins face a tough time winning the BMC elections and the municipal corporations in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region. Especially for two reasons: the Marathi voter base they rely on is shrinking and the splits in several political parties.
If the Thackeray cousins want their political brand to survive in Maharashtra in the long run, they will have to rebuild the Marathi voter base. Without a clear plan to strengthen those numbers, their emotional appeal and unity will not be enough to win elections. Or else, the cousins will have the other option to shift from regional identity politics to inclusive ‘rajneeti’. But, this option might not go down well with Marathi voters and even backfire, costing both the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and the Shiv Sena (UBT) camp.
Shiv Sena founder, the late Balasaheb Thackeray, had a strong connection with the Marathi manoos. By burying their 20 years of differences, Raj and Uddhav are trying to rebuild that legacy. Like heirs to a political ‘Godfather’ legacy, they must prove they can translate emotion into real influence. With this, the nostalgia part is done.
But, politics is not a museum of nostalgia. The real challenge lies ahead in delivering on the aspirational part. Bal Thackeray’s followers were driven more by identity than opportunity. Today, that era has faded. Mumbai has changed. Marathi-speaking people now comprise less than 35 per cent of the city. Migrant communities like Gujarati, North Indian and Rajasthani together make up nearly half of the city’s 1.4 crore population. The BJP has leveraged this demographic shift, building strong clout among migrants. In Mumbai’s 36 Assembly seats, 13 MLAs are non-Marathi, seven from the BJP. In the BMC (in 2017), 72 of the 227 corporators were non-Marathi, and half of them were from the BJP.
While BJP consolidates migrant votes, the younger Marathi generation, especially Gen Z, cares more about opportunities than identity. Marathi asmita does matter to them, but jobs, better cities, opportunities that don’t force them to migrate, and a future that feels secure matter more.
Nearly 24.54 lakh young people in Maharashtra are registered for jobs but remain unemployed. For them, the real question is whether leaders can turn slogans into salaries.
The Thackeray cousins may not be in power today and some might ask how they could deliver on their promises. But, for any opposition party, the real task is to sell vision, present a plan that connects with the people through a clear manifesto.
The big question is whether Raj and Uddhav have anything to offer in the coming years for the local body polls and for Maharashtra as a whole? Will this new alliance, if it happens, reshape Maharashtra’s political landscape and create enough jobs to meet the aspirations of the unemployed, deliver better governance, unclog traffic, keep hawkers organised, prevent flooding, improve civic amenities and bring real urban planning to the cities?
Besides delivering results, the Thackeray cousins uniting for the pride of the Marathi manoos will also have to make sure the voice of the locals is heard and respected in an India that is rapidly globalising. These are the questions that will matter far more than emotions.
In 2017, the undivided Shiv Sena had 84 seats in the BMC, just two ahead of the BJP’s 82. But, after Eknath Shinde’s 2022 revolt, more than half of Uddhav’s corporators switched sides. Raj’s MNS, once a force, has slipped into irrelevance. That’s why the upcoming civic polls are nothing short of a do-or-die battle for the Thackeray cousins.
The Shiv Sena was born in 1966 on the promise of protecting Marathi asmita. But as Mumbai grew and urbanised, the Marathi population has steadily declined.
Clearly, Raj and Uddhav cannot rely on nostalgia or cultural pride to stay in power. They will have to build an agenda and manifesto of dreams that catches the eye of every voter, especially the Marathi-speaking population.
Unless this changes, turning the tables on the BJP would be not an easy task. The BJP is keen to wrest BMC from Sena’s power.
BJP for long has been eyeing single-handed power in Asia’s richest municipal corporation, the BMC.
Now, the ruling regime under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and CM Devendra Fadnavis, the BJP has two advantages on its side for this civic election. One: an inclusive appeal in cosmopolitan Mumbai and two: a vision of infrastructure and development-oriented urban planning.
Against the vision of politics, emotion alone cannot hold the ground. Thus, along with the Marathi pride card, the Thackeray cousins will have to build an equally competing modern vision to ensure total control over the municipal corporation of the financial capital of India.
If Shiv Sena (UBT) and MNS fail to deliver on the aspirational front, the nostalgia element will not come to bail Uddhav and Raj out of the current political situation.
But, if the cousins’ unity and strategy succeed, Raj and Uddhav will script a comeback of the powerful Thackeray brand which will carry their weight in the Maharashtra of tomorrow.
Sanjeev Shivadekar is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @SanjeevShivadek
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The views expressed in this column are the individual’s and don’t represent those of the paper
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