After debate over population policy following UN report on India’s numbers racing past China by 2023, experts say real focus should be on equal access to opportunities and resources
Representational images. Pic/iStock
It's expectedly scary when the United Nations states that by 2023, which is next year, India will become the most populated country in the world, taking over China. India’s population of 1.4 billion people (in 2023) is slated to grow to 1.66 billion in 2050.
But even though it brings to mind a dystopian world where everyone may be struggling and fighting it out for the country’s resources, most experts feel that the tide will turn soon. And that we can make a go at it—all 1.4 billion of us.
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Poonam Muttreja, executive director, Population Foundation of India, says that India is in fact, experiencing a slowdown in population growth and a decline in fertility rates. She cites the Census data on population that shows that the decadal growth rate during 2001-2011 had reduced to 17.7 per cent from 21.5 per cent over 1991-2001. Similarly, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has been decreasing in India, going down from 3.4 in 1992-93 to 2.0 in 2019-21 (National Family Health Survey). This indicates that the country is on course to achieving population stabilisation. “However, our population will continue to grow for some time due to a high proportion of young persons in the population. Today, every fifth person in India is an adolescent [10-19 years] and every third is a young person [10-24 years]. Even if this cohort of young population produces only one or two children per couple, it will still result in a quantum increase in population size. The numbers will stabilise as the population ages, which as per current projections, will happen around 2050.”
In 2019, Mumbai topped the list of the world’s most populated cities with 76,790 persons per square mile. Census data shows that the decadal growth rate during 2001-2011 had reduced to 17.7 per cent from 21.5 per cent over 1991-2001. Pic/Getty Images
A study by Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, Seattle, published in The Lancet on July 14, 2020, indicates that India is expected to reach its peak population of 1.6 billion by 2048. “India is also projected to have a continued steep decline in Total Fertility Rate, which will reach 1.3. The total population will drop to 1.1 billion in 2100,” Muttreja shares in an email interview, adding that, “We are experiencing a demographic transition and our population growth will slow down as long as we stay on the right track.”
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India started its journey to tackle its population in 1952, when it became one of the first developing countries to come up with a state-sponsored family planning programme. A population policy committee was established in 1952, but the policies were not successful. In 1956, a Central Family Planning Board was set up and its focus was on sterilisation. In 1976, the Government of India announced the first National Population Policy—increasing the minimum legal marriageable age for boys and girls to 21 and 18 respectively, and providing monetary incentives for employing birth control, were some of the measures adopted. Nearly 25 years later, the National Population Policy of 2000 addressed the unmet needs for contraception, healthcare infrastructure, and health personnel, and provided integrated service delivery for basic reproductive and child healthcare. The medium-term objective of the NPP 2000 was to reduce the TFR to replacement levels by 2010. The TFR was to be 2.1 children per woman. The long-term objective was to achieve a stable population by 2045, at a level consistent with the requirements of sustainable economic growth, social development, and environmental protection.
Dr AL Sharada heads Population First, a social impact organisation that works for women empowerment, gender equality and community mobilisation. She says that though India’s fertility rate has come down, certain states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, are still falling behind. At present, UP, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Uttarakhand, Tripura and Assam are considering laws to control the population growth. Last year, the UP Law Commission submitted a draft of the Uttar Pradesh Population Bill, to incentivise families to follow a two-child norm. UP has a population of 228.96 million, which has grown by 14.72 per cent since 2011. “This has to be tackled as far as their social development is concerned,” said Sharada. She is not a proponent of strict policies like China’s one-child policy, which limited most Chinese families to one child each—the policy was implemented nationwide by the Chinese government in 1980, and ended in 2016. However, the problem is the lens through which we view the population issue, she says. “When we think of population, we often blame the people living in slums. But those children actually have a lower carbon footprint, since they recycle and use second-hand goods. A privileged kid born in say, south Mumbai, could have a lifetime thats more detrimental for the environment. So, it’s not as much about numbers, but about equal distribution of welfare and resources.”
Dr Al Sharada, Sayeed Unisa, Prof. KS James, Krishnamurthy Srinivasan and Poonam Muttreja
Surpassing China should be the least of our concerns, says Professor Sayeed Unisa, head of the Department of Fertility and Social Demography at the International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), Deonar. “What matters now is how we handle our population, much like how China managed it.” Unisa gives the example of how China has turned small towns and villages into industrial towns, so that the population doesn’t move to the cities, and since they are educated and employed, they are better equipped to take decisions like birth control, and having lesser children. “They are also producing most of the world’s plastic goods. We need to utilise the energies of our population, and not see them as a threat. We need to educate the population to highly-skilled levels, and not just in fields like medicine, but manufacturing. People are not threats, but assets.”
But how does one tap into such a large resource? India is “the youngest country in the world” with more than 62 per cent of the population in the working age group of 15 to 59 years, and more than 54 per cent of the total population below 25 years of age. Krishnamurthy Srinivasan, the author of Population Concerns in India Shifting Trends, Policies, and Programmes, says that there are three ways to help India at this point. “Firstly, educate the women, and give them proper support through varied policies. Also empower them politically. Secondly, let’s look at factors that unite us rather than divide. We can’t compare between us [or communities]. For example, the Muslim community is also making great headway in stabilising the TFR. Thirdly, all children should be welcome. So pre-natal, medical support should be given to mothers. And later, children should be given educational opportunities.”
Muttreja says that “expanding the basket of contraceptives in our public health system, so that people have more options” is a good step forward. According to NFHS-5, approximately 22 million Indian women want to stop or delay childbearing, but do not have access to contraceptives. “Our focus should be on providing women access to family planning services. We need to give comprehensive sexuality education to all adolescents, ensure social and economic development policies are gender inclusive, and address and change behaviour patterns for population stabilisation. What we need to be concerned about is the prevalent and widespread deprivation, inequality and social and gender discrimination in access to health, education and em- ployment opportunities,” she says.
Patience is going to be key, feels Professor KS James, director and senior professor at IIPS. “The population is going to rise for the next 30-40 years, as people in the reproductive age will get married and have babies”. “But we will reach a plateau. If the fertility rate is 2.1 now, in 30 years, it will be 0. What we have to figure is the imbalance between the states, and population distribution,” says James, adding that when the population policies were enacted, they were enforced among the lower middle class and the poor. “Now, they have two kids, and although aspirational, they are not skilled. But their kids will be. Wait 30 years; India will change.”
1.6
Projected population of India in billions by 2048 from current 1.412 billion. Drop in fertility rate will make it slide to 1.1 billion by 2100, according to PFI
62
Percentage of population in the working age group of 15 to 59 years
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