Coronavirus outbreak: Mumbai's infection rate now doubling every 10 days

Updated: Apr 30, 2020, 07:23 IST | A correspondent | Mumbai

BMC officials say the increase from the earlier one-week period could be a sign that the spread is slowing down

COVID-19 positive patients being taken to hospital from Jijamata Nagar in Worli, on Wednesday. Pic/Suresh Karkera
COVID-19 positive patients being taken to hospital from Jijamata Nagar in Worli, on Wednesday. Pic/Suresh Karkera

The city's battle against the COVID-19 has finally started to show some positive results with the doubling rate of positive cases increasing from 8.3 days to 10 days. According to findings of the Central Committee, the doubling rate of cases was recorded between April 7 and April 17, which indicates that cases might now increase at lesser speed. While the doubling rate period at the national level is 9.5 days, the same in Maharashtra was 8.9 days.

Noting this, the Central Committee has lauded the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation's (BMC's) preventive measures, said a senior civic official.

Mortality rate decreases
In its findings, the Committee has analysed the number of infected patients and observed that the mortality rate among them in the BMC area was lower compared to that of the state. At the state level, an average of 4.3 patients are dying per 100 infected patients and in the BMC area, an average of 3.9 patients are dying every 100 infected patients. A civic official said that few days ago the average mortality rate of infected cases in the BMC area was 6.3 per cent, which too had reduced.

However, BMC now faces the challenge to cater to areas where earlier the rate of doubling of cases was low but has increased in the last couple of days. Wards like G South, G North and E, which have been reporting a high number of cases, are seeing an increase in the doubling rate period.

Earlier, on an average the cases used to double every 10.6 days in G south but now it has gone up to 17.6 days. But R central ward has seen a reverse trend. Its doubling rate period has gone down to 5.5 days from 16.9 days.

Contact tracing
The first COVID-19 positive case was detected on March 11, and since then the civic body has been tracing contacts of positive patients. Till April 26, as many as 1,29,477 were found through contact tracing, of which 21,053 were high-risk group contacts and 1,647 cases were positive.

The BMC, however, claimed that they were being able to control the number of cases due to the containment zones as people cannot move from one area to another and spread the infection. An analysis of the statistics of medical tests conducted across the country reveals that comparatively most number of the tests had taken place in the BMC jurisdiction. As many as 66,000 tests have been conducted in the city so far, an official said.

Containment efforts
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a senior civic official said, "The doubling rate period of 10 days is better than the national average of 9.5 and the mortality rate of 3.9 is better than the state as well as national figures. This has been done through containment efforts and aggressive contact tracing and quarantining."

He added, "Today, the battle against Coronavirus is being fought with the active cooperation of the municipal corporation, police, various government departments, private hospitals and many others. We once again appeal to the citizens of Greater Mumbai Municipal Corporation to follow the guidelines."

No. of high-risk group contacts found till April 26

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