Though both test positivity rate and number of cases are still lower than the December average, officials say the coming week is crucial in Mumbai’s battle against COVID
Health workers conduct antigen tests at Dadar on Sunday. Pics/Ashish Raje
COVID-19 cases in the city increased by 39 per cent in the last five days as compared to the first nine days of the month. While testing was boosted from 14,000 to 16,000 a day, the number of positive cases per 100 tests also rose. Even though the increase does not match the level of cases in January and December, the trend of declining cases appears to have stopped for now.
A civic staffer checks passengers at Dadar station
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Though the Test Positivity Rate (TPR) and cases are still lower than December, the coming week will be crucial for the city. Even in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), there has been a 33 per cent rise in cases in the past five days. The silver line — the mortality has been declining and the daily death toll is below five per cent.
In December, the average number of daily cases was 646 and the TPR was four per cent. In the last five days, the average cases stand at 568 and TPR is 3.4 per cent. Though it is lesser than earlier months, compared to the declining trend, it is increasing. In the first nine days of February, the average daily cases in Mumbai were 408. From February 10 to 14, they soared to 568, a 39 per cent growth.
While municipal officials attributed this to a large number of tests, the TPR is also increasing. Between February 1 and 9, there were 14,411 daily tests. In the past five days, they increased to 16,106. The TPR in the two periods is 2.8 per cent and 3.5 per cent.
In MMR, Thane, which had an average of 77 cases before February 10, saw an average of 90 cases per day from Wednesday to Sunday. Navi Mumbai and Kalyan-Dombivli have seen a similar trend, having 70 and 66 average cases respectively from February 1 to 9. Now the average is 90 for Navi Mumbai and 88 for Kalyan- Dombivli. The total average of MMR, which has 12 cities, including the four mentioned, was 763 till February 9 and has surged to 1,014 now.
BMC health workers check the body temperature and oxygen saturation levels of passengers at Dadar
“The increase is not as great as to reach the levels of earlier months. The average is still lesser,” said a BMC officer.
“We are monitoring the ward-wise situation, but no particular trend has been found. Simultaneously, we have increased tests. The test numbers are highest in 30 days,” said Iqbal Singh Chahal, municipal commissioner. He added that a genome study is also going to be conducted to verify the possibility of a new virus strain.
Even as the cases are increasing, most of them are asymptomatic and the death toll is still under control. In the first half of February, Mumbai reported less than five deaths per day. In January, the daily average of deaths was 7.6. It was above 50 in the first seven months of the pandemic.
33%
Increase in cases of MMR in the past five days
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