After testing 9191, Nifty closed at 9173.75 on Friday. The roll-over figures were above average, but Banking Nifty recorded a discount of around 100 at the beginning of April futures
Delhi Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia and Punjab Finance Minister Manpreet Singh Badal during the 13th GST Council Meeting at Vigyan Bhawan in New Delhi on Friday. Pic/PTI
After testing 9191, Nifty closed at 9173.75 on Friday. The roll-over figures were above average, but Banking Nifty recorded a discount of around 100 at the beginning of April futures. Monthly charts are slightly over bought, but weekly charts and daily charts of Nifty are still showing further upside to the market. Nifty has resistance at 9250, if that level has taken off then we can expect further side to the market. Nifty has support at 9128 and 9057. During this period, Idea and BHEL were removed from the Nifty from April 1, with a replacement of IOC and India Bull Housing Finance. S&P 500 VIX and India VIX still suggest further uptrend to the market.
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Market participants are of the view that the market may move beyond 9300 in the short term because of strong expectations that GST will roll out by July. The latest move to reduce petrol price by around R 3.77 per litre and R 2.91 per litre in tandem with global crude oil price, will have a positive impact on the Indian economy. The Indian rupee was the one among the best performing currencies in the emerging currency markets in the March quarter.
Nifty Bank is slightly over bought but it has strong resistance at 21602 and 21945. Nifty Bank has support at 21269 and 21093. Price corrections can be utilised to buy PSU banks, because majority of the PSU stocks are already entered in the over- bought zone.
Nifty Metal Index has corrected recently and is poised to move up in the short term. It can be bought selectively. Nifty metal Index has resistances at 3147 and 3187. Nifty metal Index has supports at 3066 and 3035. Like Metal Index Pharma, index is also likely to gain in the near term. Nifty Pharma Index is likely to move up from the current levels after the prolonged technical corrections. Nifty Pharma has support at 10356 and 10076. It has resistance at 10735.
Let the cash flow
As expected, the AUTO index corrected recently and is likely to move up in the short term. Strong sales numbers from the two wheeler segment on and around March 31, may boost their revenues strongly. AUTO Index has support at 10046 and support at 9795. The Dow Jones Industrial average is on a technical correction mode after hitting multi year highs. Dow has resistance at 20794 and support at 20529. Dow Jones is slightly over bought which can trim its early gains in the short term.
Despite US market weakness, Nifty can move up further due to strong expectation of heavy cash flows from international investors.
Crude oil is likely to gain momentum, after OPEC members decided to cut oil production to curb price declines. Crude is trading in a slightly positive trajectory and it can test $52.31 and $ 53.85 per barrel in the short term. Crude has support at $49.86 and$ 46.82. Price declines can be utilised to buy futures. Gold is likely to move up in the short term and the immediate technical indicators are suggesting a level at $1253.44 and $1270.93 per troy ounce. The yellow metal has support at $1238.32 and $1230.53.
Alex K Mathews is the founder of www.thedailybrunch.com
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