Explaining AAP’s rise in Gujarat

The Gujarat Assembly elections survey by LoknitiCentre for the Study of Developing Societies LoknitiCSDS has sent a frisson among political observers The survey shows the Aam Aadmi Party could poll 22 per cent of votes the Congress 21 per cent and the Bharatiya Janata Party a whopping 47 per cent These findings assure a comfortable victory for the BJP a scenario surprising to fewWhat is the excitement about you may ask Well in 2017 the AAP contested 29 Assembly seats and polled 010 per cent of votes This means the party has gained 22 per cent of votes over the last five years an astonishing feat The LoknitiCSDS survey has sparked murmurs accusing AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal of playing the BJPrsquos game to split the Opposition votesmdashand relegating the Congress to the third spotIn my quest to fathom the AAPrsquos rise I turned to Mahashweta Jani who as the Gujarat State Coordinator for LoknitiCSDS for the last 12 years is responsible for collecting data from the field Combining data with her personal observations Mahashweta says ldquoThe AAP has stepped into the vacuum in Gujaratrsquos Opposition spacerdquoThe 2017 elections were fought fiercely with the Congress winning 77 seats against the BJPrsquos 99 Yet the Congress squandered its gainsmdashas many as 20 of the sitting MLAs joined the BJP as did its young stars of 2017 such as Alpesh Thakor and Hardik Patel The exodus from the Congress continues unabatedldquoPeople feel voting for the Congress does not lead to a strong opposition against the BJPrdquo Mahashweta says The Congress has not visibly engaged in the politics of streets in sharp contrast to the AAP turning the spotlight on examination papers getting leaked last year Its state president Gopal Italia is combative acquiring the rebel tag by hurling in 2017 a shoe at Gujaratrsquos home minister on a corruption issueMahashweta says ldquoKejriwal has created visibility for his party At a traffic signal if you see threewheelers with Modirsquos photos you also see those with Kejriwalrsquos I have never seen this happen with Rahul Gandhirdquo Worse the death of Ahmed Patel has deprived the Congress of a leader who had the skills to liaison with corporation members MLAs MPs and ordinary workers to stitch together a network that gave visibility to the Congress campaignBut now Rahul is too busy with the Bharat Jodo Yatra to spare time for Gujarat which seems not to matter to the Congress Tired of waiting for a Congress revival in the state and enthused by the AAPrsquos energy nonBJP voters in Gujarat have pinned their hope on Kejriwal This has not been an overnight development for the AAP polled 1328 per cent of votes in the elections to eight municipal corporations last yearMahashweta disses those analysts who say the AAPrsquos rise is predicated on offering freebies and hijacking the subaltern base of the Congress ldquoThe support for AAP is strongest in the 1825 age group Otherwise there is a minor variation in its votes across classes and castesrdquo Mahashweta says adding that Kejriwalrsquos model of governance in Delhi signified by quality public education healthcare and subsidised electricity is a compelling factor behind his partyrsquos growing attraction for GujaratisldquoEven intellectuals are moving towards AAPrdquo Mahashweta says This is just the group which should have recoiled from the AAPrsquos silence on the interminable othering of Muslims Based on her own experiences of living in Gujarat she says the Hindutva domination of Gujarat for 25 years has altered the peoplersquos mindset palpable from this story of a lowerclass selfemployed person He and his friends decided to have the AAP symbol as their WhatsApp display photo The other day BJP supporters came to them and said ldquoWhen miyas Muslims will not let you do your business you will realise your mistakerdquo Others told me that many vote for the BJP as they believe Prime Minister Narendra Modi can ldquofix miyasrdquo and protect Gujarat from neighbouring PakistanKejriwalrsquos silence is his strategic necessity argues Mahashweta who is disapproving of his rightwing lurch and tendency to personalise like Modi electoral politics and policies ldquoBut let us have no illusionmdashif Kejriwal were to speak for Muslims OBC and upper caste voters would desert himrdquo she saysThat Kejriwalrsquos politics is strategic rather than ideological is evident from the AAPrsquos decision to choose Isudan Gadhvi as its chief ministerial candidate A shriekier version of Arnab Goswami Gadhvi became extremely popular for raising social issues on his show Mahamanthan on the Gujarati channel VTV Clips of his shows were widely shared in rural Gujarat particularly in the Saurashtra region which accounts for 48 seats ldquoAAP hopes to ride his popularity to penetrate even further into rural Gujarat His OBC identity will have an echo for 40 per cent of Gujaratrsquos populationrdquo says MahashwetaThe LoknitiCSDS survey suggests a cakewalk for the BJP This can change only if the Congress fails to reverse the perception that it is not in the fight leading to further erosion in its support base before Gujarat votes in December In power in Delhi and Punjab a second position for the AAP in Gujarat will boost Kejriwalrsquos reputationmdashand ambitionThe writer is a senior journalistSend your feedback to mailbagmiddaycomThe views expressed in this column are the individualrsquos and donrsquot represent those of the paper