Why Census is now a hot potato

When the ruling National Democratic Alliance and the Opposition failed to agree even on a name for the Lok Sabha speaker it is moot whether they can evolve a consensus over more contentious issues such as the timing of the Census and its nature Due in 2021 the decennial Census was postponed because of the COVID pandemic and subsequently for unfathomable reasonsThe Census with time has acquired a thick layer of political moss so to speak For one it is linked to carrying out delimitation which involves allocating Lok Sabha seats to each state in proportion to its share in the countryrsquos population and to the implementation of 33 per cent womenrsquos reservation in legislatures For another there is now a pressing demand that the Census should also count the population of castesBut first the need for delimitation and its history Delimitation is undertaken to ensure that the ratio between the Lok Sabha seats of each state and its population is the same for all states This ratio can be maintained only through delimitation for the population of states keeps changing tracked every 10 years through the Census Delimitation ideally must follow every CensusBut delimitation last happened in 1973 based on the 1971 population data Thereafter it was put on hold through the 42nd Constitutional Amendment Act 1976 It said the next delimitation will take place only after the 2001 Census The logic was that the states notching successes in reducing their population growth rate should not have their presence and clout in the Lok Sabha diminishedThis logic by 2001 acquired strong political overtones Since the states constituting the Hindi heartland had witnessed a higher population growth than those in south India delimitation in 2001 would have increased their already high representation in the Lok Sabha even further And the balance of power would have got even more skewed against the southern states which had recorded lower population growth rates since the 1971 CensusIn order to obviate the northsouth divide delimitation was yet again postponed through the 84th Constitutional Amendment Act which said the exercise should remain frozen until the first Census after 2026 Had the 2021 Census not been delayed the first one after 2026 would have been in 2031 following which the allocation of seats to states would have been due If the Census were to now take place in 2025 the first Census after 2026 may even be in 2035ndashand delimitation thereafterThe above timeline shows delimitation is still a decade away But could it not be brought forward Yes argued academicactivist Jean Dregraveze in a recent article pointing out that the Bharatiya Janata Partyrsquos motive behind delaying the 2021 Census might be to hold it after 2026 enabling the party to carry out delimitation before the 2029 Lok Sabha electionsThe fear of 2001 will undoubtedly reemerge delimitation will aggravate the northsouth divide over representation in the Lok Sabha This danger the BJP might be tempted to ignore for unlike in 2001 it now has a formidable presence in north Indian states and can despite the reverses in the recent Lok Sabha elections enhance its electoral dominanceThe BJP appears invested in delimitation for the anticipated increase in the number of MPs after 2026 was often albeit unofficially cited as one of the reasons for constructing the new Parliament building Again the BJP linked through the 106th Amendment the implementation of 33 per cent reservation for women in legislatures to a delimitation exercise undertaken on the basis of the first Census after 2023 The first step towards conducting the Census is freezing the administrative boundaries of districts tehsils towns etc The last deadline to freeze the boundaries was extended for the ninth time six months ago and it expired yesterday June 30 Any further extension will fuel speculation about the BJPrsquos intentThe Oppositionrsquos demand to count caste has also turned the Census into a hot potato It campaigned vociferously on this issue in the recent Lok Sabha electionsmdashand reaped a rich harvest of votes The Scheduled Castes and the Scheduled Tribes have always been counted in the Censuses It is primarily the Other Backward Classes who are keen to know their percentage in the population They have for long wanted their reservation quota to match their population shareBut this cannot be done without removing the 50 per cent cap on reservation Such a measure will shrink the proportion if not the actual number of jobs and seats in educational institutes available for socially and educationally advanced groups primarily the upper castes who are the BJPrsquos steadfast supporters A caste Census will therefore give a fillip to competition among castes and deepen caste identities which the BJP seeks to subsume into the larger Hindu religious identity the cornerstone of Hindutva philosophy It is for this reason the BJP will not want to count the population of castesConflicting interests of regions political alliances and social groups make it inordinately difficult to evolve a consensus over the Census This is compounded by the BJPrsquos propensity to disregard the Oppositionrsquos opinions This is a tragedy for the Census is needed for providing subsidies to teeming millions who remain uncounted and out of official recordsThe writer is a senior journalist and author of Bhima Koregaon Challenging CasteSend your feedback to mailbagmiddaycomThe views expressed in this column are the individualrsquos and donrsquot represent those of the paper