WMO sounds climate alarm: Global temperatures could shatter heat records in next five years

The report from WMO highlights that there is an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record yet. The annual report also indicated that the temperature is expected to be 1.2 degrees Celsius to 1.9 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial average. 

Furthermore, there is a 70 per cent chance that the 5-year average warming for 2025–2029 will be more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. While the long-term warming (averaged over decades) is expected to remain below 1.5 degrees Celsius, the report said.

Key messages by WMO from the report 

• 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record.
• 86% chance that at least one of next five years will be more than 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average.
• 70% chance that 5-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5 °C.
• Long-term warming (averaged over decades) remains below 1.5°C.
• Arctic warming predicted to continue to outstrip global average.
• Precipitation patterns have big regional variations.

In a press release on Wednesday, the WMO said, "The World Meteorological Organisation Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029) projects that global temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, increasing climate risks and impacts on societies, economies and sustainable development."

The World Meteorological Department (WMO), while adding the information in their press release, also stated a few points that indicated that the global temperature average will be soaring up. However, some of the key points shared by the WMO are

• Arctic warming over the next five extended winters (November to March) is predicted to be more than three and a half times the global average, at 2.4°C above the average temperature during the most recent 30-year baseline period (1991-2020).
• Predictions of sea ice for March 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in sea ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.
• Predicted precipitation patterns for May-September 2025-2029, relative to the 1991-2020 baseline, suggest wetter than average conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and drier than average conditions for this season over the Amazon.
• Recent years, apart from 2023, in the South Asian region have been wetter than average and the forecast suggests this will continue for the 2025-2029 period. This may not be the case for all individual seasons in this period.

Addressing more about the report, WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett said, “We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of relief over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.” 

Leon Hermanson, who was the lead in producing the report from the Met Office, stated that "2025 is likely to be one of the three warmest years on record." Also, Chris Hewitt, who currently holds the position of director of climate services at the WMO, said that this is really a “worrying picture” for heatwaves and human health in the coming few years. However, he also said that it is still not too late to limit warming if fossil fuel emissions are cut.

“We must take climate action,” he said. “1.5 degree Celsius is not inevitable.”

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