02 August,2026 12:22 PM IST | Mumbai | Archana Dahiwal
The city was submerged
As Maharashtra battled one of the season's most severe monsoon phases, with Mumbai, Pune and Raigad facing flooding, landslides and major transport disruption, Nashik was preparing for a different kind of emergency.
Nearly 24 hours before the worst weather was expected, the district administration received highly localised warnings through the AI-assisted Bharat Forecast System (BharatFS), indicating the possibility of cloudburst-like rainfall in parts of the district.
Armed with that early warning, the administration activated emergency protocols, deployed NDRF and SDRF teams, monitored vulnerable rivers and dams, prepared evacuation plans, issued targeted public advisories and restricted access to tourist locations, waterfalls and trekking points.
In this detailed conversation with Mid-day, Nashik District Collector Ayush Prasad explains how artificial intelligence, hyperlocal forecasting and advance planning helped the district stay ahead of the crisis while simultaneously dealing with an unusual swarm of earthquake tremors.
Q.While Mumbai, Pune and Raigad were already battling a severe weather crisis, Nashik also received extremely heavy rainfall. What made this situation different?
Answer: The key difference was that we received a highly localised advance warning almost 24 hours before the most intense rainfall was expected. This was not a generic district-level alert. The forecast indicated the possibility of cloudburst-like rainfall in specific parts of Nashik, allowing us to begin preparations well in advance instead of reacting after the situation had escalated.
Q: How did the AI-based Bharat Forecast System help Nashik stay ahead of the crisis?
Answer: BharatFS is a next-generation high-resolution weather forecasting platform. Earlier forecasting models generally worked on grids of around 12 kilometres, which made it difficult to predict highly localised extreme weather events. The AI-assisted system works at roughly a 6-kilometre resolution, enabling us to identify much smaller zones that were likely to receive exceptionally heavy rainfall. This level of precision is extremely valuable for disaster management.
Q 3: Did the forecast specifically mention cloudburst-like rainfall?
Answer: It indicated the possibility of very intense, highly localised rainfall consistent with cloudburst-like conditions. For an administration, such an alert is significant because it suggests the potential for flash floods, sudden water accumulation, landslides and rapid changes in river and stream behaviour.
Q 4: What were the first steps taken after receiving the warning?
Answer: We immediately activated the district disaster management machinery. NDRF, SDRF and local rescue teams were placed on alert. Vulnerable rivers, dams and flood-prone settlements were put under continuous monitoring. We also prepared evacuation plans, issued public advisories and restricted access to locations that were considered unsafe.
Q 5: You have spoken about "hyperlocal warnings." What exactly does that mean in practice?
Answer: Hyperlocal warnings mean that instead of issuing a broad alert for an entire district, we communicated risks for specific localities, low-lying settlements and vulnerable clusters of homes and shops. Local officials, police personnel and community volunteers contacted residents directly through calls, messaging groups and public announcements. This made the warning much more actionable.
Q 6: How important was that locality-specific approach?
Answer: It made a substantial difference. People respond more seriously when they are told that their locality or their settlement is vulnerable rather than hearing a general warning for an entire district. Hyperlocal communication improves both compliance and the speed of evacuation.
Q 7: What preventive flood-control measures had already been taken before the heavy rain began?
Answer: We had already undertaken several preventive measures:
Water levels in dams and certain storage structures had been reduced to create additional flood-control capacity.
These preparations are often less visible than rescue operations, but they are critical for reducing the overall impact of flooding.
Q 8: Was there concern that dam releases could worsen downstream flooding?
Answer: Dam operations are closely coordinated with rainfall forecasts and downstream river conditions. The purpose of maintaining additional storage capacity is precisely to reduce the risk of uncontrolled flooding during extreme rainfall events. Continuous monitoring allows releases to be managed in a calibrated manner.
Q 9: The administration closed schools and colleges in eight talukas. Why was that decision taken so quickly?
Answer: The IMD had issued a Red Alert, and the forecast showed a high probability of extremely heavy rainfall in Malegaon, Nandgaon, Baglan, Kalwan, Trimbakeshwar, Igatpuri, Peth and Surgana. Student transportation, road safety, visibility and the possibility of sudden flooding were all considered. Closing educational institutions was a precautionary measure aimed at protecting children and reducing unnecessary travel.
Q 12: You mentioned that vulnerable residents were shifted in advance. Which groups were prioritised?
Ayush Prasad: We prioritised pregnant women expected to deliver before 4 August, elderly residents, people with chronic illnesses and families living in low-lying or flood-prone settlements. The objective was to ensure that medical assistance and transportation would remain available even if roads were affected later.
Q 13: Nashik has also been experiencing earthquake tremors. How challenging is it to handle earthquakes and extreme rainfall simultaneously?
Answer: It is indeed a double challenge. On one hand, we have been monitoring a swarm of earthquake tremors, and on the other hand we are dealing with extreme monsoon conditions. Both situations require continuous surveillance, coordination between departments and clear communication with the public. Our teams have had to remain prepared for multiple types of emergencies at the same time.
Q: In practical terms, how valuable was the additional 24-hour lead time?
Answer: It was extremely valuable. Those additional hours allowed us to:
activate emergency protocols,
In disaster management, even a few hours can save lives. A full day of preparation gives the administration a completely different operational advantage.
Q: Did the administration use technology beyond weather forecasting?
Answer: Yes. We relied on real-time communication systems, control-room monitoring, field reporting through digital platforms and continuous coordination between departments. Technology is most effective when it supports rapid decision-making and ground-level execution.
