Mumbai: Swelling crowds are now cause for worry, say health experts

The reemergence of inperson political events and protests and a growing number of citizens in public spaces is a sign of trouble despite Covid cases plateauing in the city and across Maharashtra say health experts The scene over the past few days in Mumbai is similar to the beginning of the second wave and it might just be the proverbial lull before the storm they say insisting that people must stick to Covidappropriate behaviourDr Wiqar Shaikh Professor of Medicine Grant Medical College and Sir JJ Group of Hospitals expressed serious concerns over the rallies and gatherings across the country ldquoWe are in the middle of what we would call a lsquothick tailrsquo of the second waverdquo he said India reported over 37500 new cases and nearly 650 deaths on TuesdayThe situation is equally alarming in other countries He said ldquoWhile the US reported 26 lakh new cases the UK saw more than 30000 new cases yesterday These countries are already in the middle of the third wave and indeed some countries have suffered a fourth wave of the pandemicrdquo Dr Shaikh said the third wave was inevitable in India and could hit by SeptemberOctober and that there could be more cases and deathsBeing fully vaccinated is no ticket to dropping the guard He said almost 90 per cent of the Israeli population has received both doses yet the country is reporting about 8000 daily cases It has now ordered a third booster dose for its people ldquoIndeed it is not surprising that vaccine manufacturers such as Pfizer have confirmed that two doses of their Covid19 vaccines would provide protection for 5 to 6 months only and a booster dose would be neededrdquo An annual dose of Covid vaccine could become the norm worldwide he saidWith only 40 per cent of Indians having received the first dose he said an adequate supply of vaccines was the need of the hour Dr Shaikh called for strict curbs on political and religious gatherings and big weddings apart from heavy fines on the masklessDr Subhash Hira Professor of Global Health at the University of WashingtonSeattle and an infectious disease expert said ldquoHistory seems to be repeating itself and leading to upsurges in Covid19 pandemic waves across the globe For example the lsquolullpointrsquo called a plateau seen in India between wave1 and wave2 during October 2020 and March 2021 was a mirage of hope and taken as a victory in the field of public healthrdquoAlso read 75 per cent of Navi Mumbai given first dose of Covid19 vaccine 28 per cent fully vaccinatedHe said ldquoWhile India successfully launched and is conducting an indigenous vaccine programme that has so far covered 59 crore adults 18 per cent have got two doses there was an innocent apathy in the air associated with a sigh of relief and a false sense of security So when wave2 got triggered by the Delta variant and hit India in March 2021 the health system its implementers and communities were all caught unawares The pandemicrsquos case reproduction rate grew exponentially and its doubling time was between 37 days Now that scientists and experts have been closely monitoring the emergence of Deltaplus variants in most states of India its mathematical models suggest wave3 to emerge in midSeptember 2021 because over 50 per cent of adults vaccinated or unvaccinated defy barrier methods of mask usage physical distance and sanitisationrdquoFalse sense of securityThe expert added ldquoGenerally the vaccinated adults have a false sense of security and they consider themselves to be fully protected from SARSCoV2Many are even back to their democratic activities including morchas gatherings and large meetings They are possibly unaware that they can participate in democratic activities after two vaccine shots and strict observation of barrier methods Such exercise will bring the burden of Covid in India to a low levelrdquoDr Santosh Bansode HoDEmergency Medicine Wockhardt Hospitals Mumbai Central said the picture unfolding in India is similar to the one at the end of the first wave ldquoPeople are behaving casually political and social programmes with large numbers of people gathering are emerging On top of that those who took two vaccine doses are thinking they are completely protected from Covid19 virus and behaving in a more casual way Everywhere we are seeing clusters of peoplerdquoDr Bansode said ldquoWe must think about Delta variants that even infect fully vaccinated people Although the symptoms will be mild these people can further spread the disease to unvaccinated people or vulnerable populations unknowingly and that will be a major problemrdquoNo massing of people and adherence to Covid protocols are sacrosanct he said ldquoWe should be very careful while travelling on public transport We must learn from the mistakes of the past If we dont learn now then there are high chances that we will be in trouble and the healthcare system will be under stress again Think now act now to get saved in the near futurerdquo Dr Bansode added37500New cases in India on Tuesday