India’s wholesale inflation may have reached its lowest point but is expected to remain in negative territory for much of 2025–26, according to a Union Bank of India report. With subdued global commodity prices and stable food inflation, the bank projects WPI to track below 0.35 pc and expects a 25 bps repo rate cut in December
-1763205242350_d.png "India's wholesale inflation bottomed out, may still remain negative through 2025-26: Report")
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India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) or wholesale inflation has "bottomholesale inflation bottomed out, may still remain negated out" and will probably gain slight momentum from November onwards, even as it may still remain in negative territory for most of the remaining months of 2025-26, Union Bank of India said in a report.
The Bank's 2025-26 WPI forecast is currently tracking below 0.35 per cent amid what are being stated as subdued global commodity prices and a seasonal decline in food prices (with the impact of floods on food inflation seen to be capped).
"Food WPI remains depressed - spatial flooding and supply-chain disruptions did not materialise as expected, keeping food prices contained," the report read.
With 2025-26 Consumer Price Index (CPI) or retail inflation projections of the Union Bank of India also running sharply below the RBI's latest estimates, it expects a 25 basis points repo rate cut in the upcoming December monetary policy review meeting.
While real GDP growth momentum remains robust, the report asserts that nominal GDP growth is expected to come under pressure due to subdued 2025-26 CPI and WPI projections.
India's wholesale inflation turned negative in October, with the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) recording a decline of (-) 1.21 per cent in October 2025 compared to the same month last year, according to official data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on Friday.
A decrease in the costs of food articles, crude petroleum, natural gas, electricity, mineral oils, and basic metals mainly drove the fall in prices.
The Ministry stated that the month-on-month change in WPI for October stood at (-) 0.06 per cent compared to September 2025.
The government releases the index number of wholesale price in India every month on the 14th of every month (or next working day, if the 14th falls on a holiday) with a time lag of two weeks of the reference month, and the index number is compiled with data received from institutional sources and selected manufacturing units across the country.
Inflation has been a concern for many countries, including advanced economies. However, India has largely managed to steer its inflation trajectory in a favourable direction.
The RBI held its benchmark repo rate steady at 6.5 per cent for the eleventh consecutive time, before cutting it for the first time in about five years in February 2025.
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