MVA’s relentless targeting of errant ministers and MLAs belonging to Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP seems to be fuelling BJP’s goal of becoming the single-largest winner in the state local body polls
Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) shakes hands with Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis at the swearing-in ceremony of newly elected MLAs on December 5, 2024. Pic/Rane Ashish
For the BJP, its adversaries seem to be turning into its campaigners. The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which looks like a divided dressing room, is seen relentlessly targeting the Mahayuti partners — the Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar camps — instead of going after the captain of the alliance, the BJP. As the Opposition has pushed its allies to the back foot, several hundreds of workers from all parties across the state (excluding alliance partners) are flocking to the BJP fold, turning the party into a political ocean, a clear indication of the party batting on the front foot to achieve its goal — ‘Shat Pratishat BJP’ (100 per cent BJP).
Later this year, Maharashtra will witness the biggest grassroots level political match spanning municipal bodies, districts and villages. The contest will be intense as the final results will decide who is truly in command of the larger political pitch in Maharashtra. Also, the final score will be indicative of what’s going to happen in the 2029 elections, as local body polls are dubbed ‘mini Assembly elections’.
Under normal circumstances, constant Opposition attacks on Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP would have hurt the BJP’s image, too. But, this time the allies under fire ahead of the ‘mini Assembly’ polls seem to be playing to the BJP’s advantage, as the Opposition targeting its allies is helping BJP focus on consolidating its position and portraying itself as a stable and clean bet. Especially, with many Mahayuti leaders at decision-making levels indicating that for the upcoming local body elections, at some places and regions the contest could be a ‘friendly fight’ without any formal alliance, hinting at a competition among Mahayuti partners for supremacy.
In such a scenario, with eleven state budgets under his belt and being the longest serving deputy chief minister, with 41 NCP MLAs, Ajit is no political lightweight and his faction could pose a challenge in rural Maharashtra, especially in the western region where ‘Dada’ (as Ajit Pawar is fondly called) remains strong.
In the past five months, NCP MLA and minister Dhananjay Munde, a key leader in Marathwada was forced to resign and agriculture minister Manikrao Kokate, NCP MLA from Sinnar Assembly constituency of Nashik district, remains under fire. The development has not only dented the image of individual NCP MLAs, but has weakened Ajit and his party as one cannot rule out the possibility of its core voter base — farmers — drifting away.
Similarly, Shinde and his party have a good foothold in urban areas. But, the Shinde Sena is also facing the heat as its leaders and ministers in the Mahayuti government — Sanjay Shirshat, Yogesh Kadam and Bharat Gogawale — have stirred controversies that have dented the party image.
The controversies are not limited to ministers, Shinde’s MLAs, too, are in the line of fire. Controversies by MLAs Sanjay Gaikwad and Arjun Khotkar have added to the party’s woes as its image in urban areas like Thane, Kalyan-Dombivli, Nashik and Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar has taken a hit.
So, if the coming elections are to be contested independently, for the BJP, the weakening of its alliance could turn out to be a major gain.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the MVA, comprising the constituting Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, secured 30 of the 48 parliamentary seats in Maharashtra. Congress bagged 13, UBT secured nine and the Sharad Pawar camp won eight.
But, no one expected Maharashtra’s voters to be so volatile. Six months later, the Assembly results flipped the script. The Mahayuti alliance swept the elections, winning 230 of the 288 Assembly seats in Maharashtra. BJP led the tally with 132 seats, the Shinde Sena getting 57 and Ajit’s camp bagging 41 Assembly constituencies.
The Assembly poll results not only led to cracks within the MVA alliance, but even BJP’s ruling alliance partners — Shinde and Pawar — were left with little to no scope to manoeuvre. The BJP was so close to the halfway mark needed to form the government, that even without Shinde and Ajit’s support, it would have sailed through.
But, BJP did not rest on its laurels. In fact, the party accelerated efforts to consolidate its position and to expand its numbers with the aim of achieving its ‘Mission 2029’ win excluding its allies.
The recent chaos within the Mahayuti has led to the cracks in the firewall of ‘bhai’ (Eknath Shinde) in urban areas and slowed the momentum of ‘Dada’ (Ajit) in rural areas. As the alliance partners weaken in both urban and rural areas, the BJP is quietly making inroads in these Shinde-Pawar strongholds.
As MVA is undecided about continuing the alliance and Shinde and Pawar facing the heat, it is the BJP which is in complete command of the current political situation and stands a better chance to improve its tally drastically, unless voters turn volatile, as seen during the Lok Sabha and the state Assembly polls.
If the Mahayuti constituents choose to contest separately, BJP will not be caught unawares. In fact, by inducting political leaders from Mumbai, Nashik, Kalyan Dombivli, Pune, Kolhapur, coastal Konkan region and Vidarbha to its fold, the commentary is loud and clear that party is prepared to play an election match on the usual pitch — against both the MVA and its own alliance partners in the state government.
Whether the attack by the Opposition is a designed strategy or whether MVA leaders are hesitating to take on the BJP directly, fearing backlash from central agencies such Enforcement Directorate, Central Bureau of Investigation or income tax department, one thing is sure, the attack is merely shaking the branches (Shinde and Ajit) and not touching the roots, inadvertently assisting the BJP in moving steadily towards its main mission.
Sanjeev Shivadekar is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @SanjeevScribe
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The views expressed in this column are the individual’s and don’t represent those of the paper.
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