30 July,2026 07:17 PM IST | Mumbai | Eshanpriya MS
As of July 30, the Santacruz observatory in Mumbai recorded 1,904.9 mm of rainfall, equivalent to 82.14 pc of city`s seasonal rainfall. File Pic
Heavy July rains delivered more rainfall than expected across India despite forecasts of a below-normal month influenced by a strengthening El Nino, according to a new study by climate research consultancy Climate Trends.
The study found that between July 1 and July 26, India received 238.2 mm of rainfall against the normal 233.9 mm, outperforming the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) forecast, which had predicted July rainfall at less than 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The unexpected spell of widespread rainfall helped significantly reduce the country's overall monsoon rainfall deficit.
According to the study, India's nationwide rainfall deficit fell dramatically from 40 per cent on June 30 to 16 per cent by July 29.
Researchers attributed the improvement to a series of active monsoon systems that brought widespread rainfall across several parts of the country during July.
States including Maharashtra, Gujarat, Assam, Odisha, Jammu and Kashmir, and Himachal Pradesh experienced heavy to extremely heavy rainfall during the period.
Despite the overall improvement, the study highlighted significant regional differences in rainfall distribution.
Around 60 per cent of India's state area recorded normal to excess rainfall, while eastern, north-eastern and southern regions continued to experience below-normal rainfall.
According to the findings:
- 15 states recorded normal rainfall.
- Four states received excess to large excess rainfall.
- 17 states remained rainfall deficient, covering around 36 per cent of the country's state area.
- Rainfall deficiency stood at 30 per cent in East and Northeast India and 26 per cent in South India.
The report suggests that India's monsoon is becoming increasingly complex due to climate change.
Researchers said warming in the western Pacific Ocean, interactions with Western Disturbances and changing ocean conditions are increasingly influencing the monsoon alongside El Nino.
The study noted that forecasting seasonal rainfall alone is no longer sufficient, as short but intense rainfall events are becoming more common and are leading to floods, landslides and other extreme weather incidents.
It added that India is entering a new climate regime where predicting extreme rainfall episodes and their impacts will become increasingly important.
Meanwhile, separate data released by the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) show that Mumbai has already received a substantial share of its seasonal rainfall.
As of July 30, the Santacruz observatory had recorded 1,904.9 mm of rainfall, equivalent to 82.14 per cent of the city's seasonal rainfall. During the same period last year, the figure stood at 56.20 per cent.
The Colaba observatory recorded 1,615.7 mm, accounting for 77.12 per cent of seasonal rainfall, compared with 46.32 per cent by the same date in 2025.
According to the IMD, rainfall departure currently stands at 39.7 per cent above normal at Santacruz and 29.7 per cent above normal at Colaba, reflecting an exceptionally wet monsoon season so far.
