23 October,2026 08:29 AM IST | Mumbai | Aditi Alurkar
Representation pic/istock
The unpredictability of the seasons has left Mumbaikars on edge. With an erratic monsoon behind us and a warm October underway, alarming labels such as âSuper El Nino', âMonster El Nino' and âGodzilla El Nino' have added to concerns. However, meteorologists caution against the hype, explaining what the phenomenon means for India, Maharashtra and Mumbai.
The Pacific Ocean, thousands of kilometres away, plays a major role in shaping global weather patterns. Changes in sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation in the tropical Pacific form part of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring climate pattern.
Representation pic/istock
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) identifies El Nino as the warm phase of ENSO and La Nina as its cool phase. The pattern recurs cyclically, typically every two to seven years, while the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) helps measure the strength of El Nino.
This year, the WMO expects El Nino to intensify towards a peak around December. However, forecasts are probabilistic, and the eventual strength and duration of the event remain uncertain. Athreya Shetty, an independent meteorologist, believes labels such as âSuper', âMonster' and âGodzilla' El Nino are an overreach.
"These phenomena are usually classified as weak, moderate, strong or very strong. We have seen this type of a very strong El Nino shape up in the 1970s, 2015, and we are experiencing such a year again. These high temperatures have to hold for a few months for us to call it anything resembling âsuper'," he said.
Athreya Shetty, independent meteorologist
Rushikesh Agre, another independent meteorologist, explained that the ONI uses three-month average sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region of the Pacific to assess ENSO conditions.
"These indices use the same part of the Pacific Ocean to create a mean of temperatures over time that help with the forecasts. While they help calculate the impact and intensity of El Nino, they too are evolving. This forecast model is a probability and is not the reality, so one can think of weather forecasts like the stock market; it constantly changes shape and isn't accurate all the time," said Agre.
El Nino is associated with an increased risk of below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall in India, but it does not determine the outcome on its own. Experts say its influence also depends on other atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
Rajesh Kapadia, independent meteorologist who runs the Vagaries of the Weather blog
"The intensity of El Nino is a crucial climate factor, but it isn't everything. While El Nino does bring about a drought-like pattern for Maharashtra, as it did in 1972 and 2015, it is not the only controlling factor that impacts the intensity of the drought," said Dr Akshay Deoras, senior research scientist at the University of Reading, UK.
Deoras said prolonged dry spells during the monsoon can worsen drought conditions by affecting groundwater recharge and crops. "When a monsoon day records less than 2.5 mm of daily rainfall, we call it a dry day. This year, South and Central Maharashtra recorded 59 days in a row where the daily rain was less than 2.5 mm. We saw longer dry spells in 2018, 2015 and 1972, but the spatial distribution of such dry spells is broader this year compared to 2018," he said.
Bikram Singh, head of the IMD's Regional Meteorological Centre
Other factors also influence the monsoon. These include the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), an eastward-moving pattern of tropical atmospheric activity, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which measures sea-surface temperature differences across parts of the Indian Ocean. Their interactions with El Nino can strengthen or offset its influence.
No. El Nino does not cause deficient rainfall uniformly across the country or even within Maharashtra. Local geography and the distribution of rainfall can produce sharply different outcomes.
Dr Akshay Deoras, senior research scientist at the University of Reading, UK
"This year, for instance, Mahabaleshwar received nearly 6442 mm of rainfall, and Tamhini Ghat received nearly 9311 mm of rain due to the sheer geography of Maharashtra. While Santacruz, Mumbai, and Goa all lie at the coast, Mumbai received adequate rain, but Goa was in a 48 per cent deficit," said Rajesh Kapadia, an independent meteorologist who runs the blog Vagaries of the Weather.
Kapadia said rainfall forecasts must account for several interacting climate drivers, including ENSO in the Pacific and the IOD in the Indian Ocean. The same Nino 3.4 readings can coincide with different monsoon conditions, making it unreliable to base a forecast on a single index.
El Nino is a natural phenomenon, but it operates against a backdrop of long-term global warming. Experts caution against confusing the two.
Rushikesh Agre, independent meteorologist
"The warming of the Pacific Ocean is a normal phenomenon, and we don't have any proof to say that El Nino has become more frequent than before. However, the ocean temperatures have grown higher owing to global warming, which may lead us to feel the pinch some more," said Shetty.
El Nino can shift rainfall and temperature patterns, increasing drought risks in some regions while contributing to excessive rainfall in others. Higher background temperatures can further aggravate heat stress. However, individual impacts cannot be attributed to El Nino alone.
For Mumbai, water availability remains a concern after the uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall. The city is currently facing a 10 per cent water cut, while Mayor Ritu Tawade has warned that El Nino could add to the pressure on supplies. Agre said rising temperatures could increase evaporation from reservoirs and catchments, adding to the city's water-management challenges.
"We may have to observe a cut down on construction and infrastructure sites too, given the current water status. The high El Nino temperatures may even lead to higher evaporation across the city's catchments," he said. Any restrictions on construction or other water users would, however, depend on decisions by the authorities and the prevailing water situation.
With El Nino expected to intensify towards the end of the year, questions have emerged about its potential impact on winter. Experts say warmer conditions are possible, but a warmer winter is not guaranteed.
"Western disturbances in North India lead to colder winters. However, these disturbances need to have gaps between them for the cold to actually travel southwards. This year, we may see a shorter winter with fewer colder spells in Mumbai, lasting for a few days each over November and December," Shetty said.
Meteorologists caution that the current El Nino forecast is not enough to predict the 2027 monsoon. A more meaningful assessment will be possible closer to the season, with the first broad outlook expected around April or May next year.
Maharashtra has declared drought conditions in 305 of its 358 talukas, with affected areas spanning Marathwada and other regions.
Although the state's overall rainfall has been within normal limits at certain points, its uneven temporal and spatial distribution has left several areas facing water stress.
"Over the 17 weeks of monsoon, we only had five to six weeks of normal or excessive rainfall. All the other weeks recorded a deficit. This leads to a lot of surface runoff and the water catchment areas are not properly recharged.
The streams dry up faster and Mumbai lakes, though filled adequately, deplete fast too if normal water supply is provided," said Bikram Singh, head of the IMD's Regional Meteorological Centre.
Singh warned that January to May 2027 could be difficult for water availability, with potential consequences for drinking water, agriculture and hydropower generation. The IMD's forecasts and reservoir levels will be crucial in assessing the scale of water stress over the coming months.
El Nino is associated with an increased risk of below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall in India, but it does not determine the outcome on its own. Experts say its influence also depends on other atmospheric and oceanic conditions. "The intensity of El Nino is a crucial climate factor, but it isn't everything. While El Nino does bring about a drought-like pattern for Maharashtra, as it did in 1972 and 2015, it is not the only controlling factor that impacts the intensity of the drought," said Dr Akshay Deoras, senior research scientist at the University of Reading, UK. Deoras said prolonged dry spells during the monsoon can worsen drought conditions by affecting groundwater recharge and crops.
