An unsteady balancing act

Maratha protesters celebrate after the state government agrees to most of the demands of their leader, Manoj Jarange Patil, on September 2. Pic/Atul Kamble

The Maharashtra government's latest move to de-escalate the quota dispute has eased tensions for now, but has not satisfied either Marathas or Other Backward Classes (OBCs). The two communities are divided as some of their members feel they have won, while others feel otherwise. Furthermore, the government's step-by-step approach means the issue may resurface if demands are not met or feelings of betrayal emerge.

The Maharashtra government's latest move has left both Marathas and OBCs unsure who has really won. The government approved the issuance of Kunbi caste certificates to Marathas in the Marathwada region, who can prove lineage based on the old Hyderabad gazette - a solution that pleases neither side completely.

Temporary fixes and balancing acts are common practices in politics. But the recent government solution has certainly left a window open for the next round of conflict, which might come in the form of waves of protest and legal battles, or both.

This is not the first time Maharashtra has faced such a churn. From the Mandal era of the 1990s to repeated court battles over quota laws, every attempt at a permanent fix has ended in fresh disputes.

The ruling parties and even the Opposition know they cannot afford to fully side with either community.

Marathas make up about 28 per cent of the state's 12-crore-plus population, while OBCs, spread across more than 380 castes, account for nearly 53 per cent. The effect of any move that upsets either community is immediately felt in the ballot box.

The Maharashtra government's decision is such that no one is in a position to clearly say who has won and who has lost. The answer is not simple and clear, not even to community leaders themselves.

Some Maratha leaders claim victory with promised reservations for those proving Kunbi lineage, though experts say such a system already exists.

Among OBCs, some feel their quota is safe, while others see it as reduced, prompting protest and possible court challenges.

The contradictions within the leadership tell their own story. Quota activist Manoj Jarange insists on full Maratha reservation, while Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis walks a tightrope, assuring Marathas of inclusion without upsetting OBCs, as this is not "sarsakhat" (across the board) reservation and only those with genuine Kunbi records will qualify.

Meanwhile, OBC veteran Chhagan Bhujbal's defiance is symbolic of the simmering unease within the community, signalling that not all within the OBC bloc are convinced by the government's assurances.

Beyond leaders' disagreement, the community's history and socio-economic realities make the issue even more complex.

The Kunbi community has been traditionally engaged in farming and falls under the OBC category. Marathas claim they, too, are originally farmers and are demanding the same reservation benefits. OBCs are opposing the move as this would dilute their 27 per cent quota. The roots of this demand are also economic.

A 2024 report by the Maharashtra State Backward Class Commission shows over 21 per cent of the Marathas live below the poverty line, which is significantly higher than the state average of 17.4 per cent.

Political history adds another layer to this complex issue. Till the early 1990s, Marathas were not overly interested in reservation. But, after the Mandal Commission gave reservation to OBCs, Marathas started feeling left out in jobs and education and demanded a quota.

Marathas have ruled Maharashtra politics for decades, producing a dozen chief ministers. Since 1960, the state has seen 21 chief ministers and over half of them have come from the Maratha community. Yet, today, Marathas are protesting for reservation and fighting to be counted among the backward.

Both the Maratha and OBC communities hold the keys to power in Maharashtra. Maratha control cooperatives, schools and sugar factories, while OBC are widespread and growing in influence. Both can decide which party rules the state.

Even if one community feels ignored, it can tilt the outcome of the elections. Maharashtra has experienced first-hand how the ground quickly shifted during the 2024 polls.

Last year in the parliamentary elections, the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance, comprising Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress, and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP, swept 31 out of 48 seats.

But, just six months later, in the state Assembly elections, the picture changed completely. The Mahayuti (BJP, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP) came back with a thumping majority, winning 232 of the 288 Assembly seats.

One major factor was the consolidation and polarisation of the OBC votes in favour of the Mahayuti during the Assembly polls.

Fadnavis's solution keeps both sides happy for now, but if Marathas cannot get documents or a full quota, or OBCs feel their share is cut, tensions and protests may flare up again.

In fact, Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's words carry more weight than they seemed. Shinde maintained that the Maratha issue would be solved "tapya tapya ne" (step by step), a clear admission that there is no quick fix to the problem, reflecting a cautious approach.

For now, Fadnavis has scored political brownie points with a script that any political leader could have managed to write.

However, one should not forget that in politics, temporary solutions rarely last. Especially, with past incidents indicating that the quota issue in Maharashtra never dies down for long.

If this fragile truce fails, the state could be staring at a fiercer and more divisive battle ahead. Political leaders are well aware of the fact that a potential climax in the quota row is yet to come.

Sanjeev Shivadekar is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @SanjeevShivadek
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